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> You could say China has control over Australia and the United States for the same reason I think that's a bit disingenuous. No-one would seriously claim that
by sho 7y ago
> You could say China has control over Australia and the United States for the same reason
I think that's a bit disingenuous. No-one would seriously claim that those two countries are beholden to China in anything other than trade. Meanwhile Taiwan has a freaking "independence movement". Would there be an independence movement if a country is truly independent already? They call themselves the Republic of China for pete's sake. A fact, needless to say, not lost on the mainlanders.
I'm not any kind of expert but I know enough that it's not as simple as "separate country, game over". Every decision Taiwan makes is taken with careful consideration of the mainland's reaction. And I know exactly what the mainlanders think of Taiwan - renegade island to be brought to heel ASAP. Probably not by brute force - although that possibility always lurks, and no-one would stop them. No, they'll do it the Chinese way - long-game manipulation until they hold all the cards. There's no if here, there's simply when.
Some countries simply can't exist in the long term, especially when they're right next to a much larger party with designs on them - doubly so if there's some sort of history. Ukraine was/is one. HK too. The clock is ticking for DPRK, it's just a question of who's going to own the mess afterwards. The clock is set further out for Taiwan but.. the writing on the wall is so clear you could read it from space.
Don't get me wrong, I think all of this sucks. I love Taiwan and don't want to see it subsumed into the Borg. That doesn't really change anything, though.
- SllX 7y agoThat independence movement is as much about giving up their own claims on the mainland and continuing as an independent nation without ambitions to one day kick out the poser government currently controlling the PRC as anything else. All these years later, Taiwan still maintains their claims, actually they maintain technically larger claims on the mainland past PRC borders than even the PRC claims.
- goblin89 7y ago> Some countries simply can't exist in the long term, especially when they're right next to a much larger party with designs on them - doubly so if there's some sort of history. Ukraine was/is one. If we expand the Ukraine/Russia example to other neighbors in the region for whom Russia is a big trade partner and who share linguistic/ethnic roots, do you claim none of those countries can exist long term and a USSR-like territory is about to be reestablished? In reality, some of those countries (say Kazakhstan) are growing richer and more influential. There are always other trade partners—Ukraine is increasingly trading with Europe, and global trade isn’t going anywhere. Taiwan has future, even if it requires some strategic thinking and inventiveness. The situation with Hong Kong is very different, it is not a country in nearly as much sense of the word as Taiwan is. It was in fact officially ceded to PRC—though now that PRC is no longer recognizing the corresponding documents they signed in 1997, maybe there is some hope for Hong Kong independence indeed!
- kenneth 7y agoHello from HK :). Quick nitpick: the Sino-British Joint Declaration was signed in 1984 between Margaret Thatcher and Zhao Ziyang (really on behalf of Deng Xiaoping). 1997 was the year of the "handover."
- goblin89 7y agoHello from HK as well! I stand corrected as far as the date of signing the document goes.
- nailer 7y agoOriginal comment: > China is one of the largest market to which Taiwan exports their goods (and in large part, the culture) and China has used this to pressure Taiwan in the past. My comment: > You could say China has control over Australia and the United States for the same reason Your comment: > No-one would seriously claim that those two countries are beholden to China in anything other than trade. Totally agreed, but you considered trade sufficient in your original comment.