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We’re just entering into a cycle which will vastly reduce the importance of the oil market. If the price goes up more people switch irretrievably to electric ve
by Brakenshire 7y ago
We’re just entering into a cycle which will vastly reduce the importance of the oil market. If the price goes up more people switch irretrievably to electric vehicles, if the price goes down investment suffers. And every year the cost of batteries falls by 20%. BNP Paribas recently estimated that over 25 years oil will have to come down to $9 per barrel to compete with the cost of delivering the same amount of energy to vehicles using batteries and electricity. Oil is just going to become one chemical feedstock amongst many, important but no more so than other major commodities.
- flurdy 7y agoUntil we figure out better alternatives to plastic (or rather are more incentivised to use alternatives), and other by-products, then we will be stuck with our total dependence on petrochemicals. True, more use of EVs will reduce oil demand somewhat and lower prices. Though that again just means less investment in exploration and research, and temporarily seal low yield oil fields, we will still pump more or less the same enormous amount of oil we do today, if not more due to ever-increasing Earth population.
- Brakenshire 7y agoPetrochemical feedstock only makes up 10-20% of oil demand, and road transportation 50%. And there are multiple different sources for those feedstocks. As I say, oil will remain an important commodity, but its days as the pre-eminent commodity, and a key driver of geopolitics, are already numbered.