Given that there was a large jump and then a quick fall back to lower levels, a lot of it is probably speculators trying to make a quick buck, not actual worrie

Given that there was a large jump and then a quick fall back to lower levels, a lot of it is probably speculators trying to make a quick buck, not actual worries that supply might be threatened. Remember that the first time the oil price reached 100 USD it wasn't because of actual economic reasons, it was because a trader wanted to go down in history as the first person to buy a barrel for 100 USD.