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KSA tried to restore the internationally-recognized president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi after the Houthis ousted him. The Houthis had strong ties with Iran prior to

KSA tried to restore the internationally-recognized president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi after the Houthis ousted him. The Houthis had strong ties with Iran prior to this intervention, and in fact the KSA intervention aimed to prevent a Houthi takeover that would bring strong Iranian influence and effective control to Yemen. Either way, the KSA intervention failed, and the Houthis were able to take over and establish themselves as the dominant power in Yemen, so my assertion stand: they currently have no organic reason to launch a campaign against KSA. Normally a rebel force in this situation would focus on stabilizing their own rule in their country.

elgenie 7y ago
The Houthis only control the northwestern part of Yemen, which borders Saudi Arabia. Though that represents a lot of the population, stabilizing control over the entire country is difficult when fighting on two fronts and being bombed, as they’ve been for more than four years, and with Saudi Arabian support to their opposition readily available over the border. The Saudi bombing/blockade/invasion operation “Decisive Storm“ in 2015 failed, but the followup “Restoring Hope” operation is ongoing. Also, the Houthis had launched around 200 previous drone attacks against Saudi in retaliation; this one was just significantly more successful, as opposed to a new campaign. In 2015, when the Saudi’s intervened, a UN assessment asserted that there was no evidence of Iran having any “command and control” over the Houthis at the time. If intervening in the Yemeni civil war on the side of a losing faction and bombing indiscriminately earned Saudi Arabia the Houthi’s enmity, pushed them closer to Iran, and resulted in an effective reprisal, the moral of the story would seem to be that actions have consequences and rashly attempting regional hegemony carries risk.
- NeverFade 7y ago
  UN assessments are controversial and, in my opinion, dead wrong and biased. The UN wants the situation to deescalate, which is the opposite of what will happen if Iran's role is acknowledged. The rest of your comments don't contradict my initial statements. The Saudis tried to keep Hadi in power and failed. The attacks against them by the Houthis are inversely correlated to the Saudi intervention. The Saudis have been scaling back their intervention, while the Houthis are attacking them more and using firepower and weapons they obviously received from Iran. The Houthis have no reason to keep escalating against KSA now that KSA has virtually stopped their intervention. This would be an insane strategy - a rebel force launching extremely aggressive and escalating attacks against a large and powerful neighbor who stopped fighting them 3 years ago. The only way you can explain this is that they are doing Iran's bidding. As the weapons are Iranian, this is hardly far-fetched.
  - elgenie 7y ago
    Since the elements of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis date back to the 1930s, you can safely assume that it will ebb and flow according to each sides’ capabilities and willingness to seek advantage in the absence of a formal accord. As for the fantasy of Saudi Arabia stopping intervention, they bombed a Houthi site in Dhamar less than two weeks ago in continuation of their bombing campaign of the last four years. That attack, which killed around 100 people, was merely the deadliest in this extremely dirty conflict, and likely sparked the Houthi reprisal.
    - elgenie 7y ago
      * deadliest this year

elgenie 7y ago

The Houthis only control the northwestern part of Yemen, which borders Saudi Arabia. Though that represents a lot of the population, stabilizing control over the entire country is difficult when fighting on two fronts and being bombed, as they’ve been for more than four years, and with Saudi Arabian support to their opposition readily available over the border. The Saudi bombing/blockade/invasion operation “Decisive Storm“ in 2015 failed, but the followup “Restoring Hope” operation is ongoing. Also, the Houthis had launched around 200 previous drone attacks against Saudi in retaliation; this one was just significantly more successful, as opposed to a new campaign. In 2015, when the Saudi’s intervened, a UN assessment asserted that there was no evidence of Iran having any “command and control” over the Houthis at the time. If intervening in the Yemeni civil war on the side of a losing faction and bombing indiscriminately earned Saudi Arabia the Houthi’s enmity, pushed them closer to Iran, and resulted in an effective reprisal, the moral of the story would seem to be that actions have consequences and rashly attempting regional hegemony carries risk.

NeverFade 7y ago
UN assessments are controversial and, in my opinion, dead wrong and biased. The UN wants the situation to deescalate, which is the opposite of what will happen if Iran's role is acknowledged. The rest of your comments don't contradict my initial statements. The Saudis tried to keep Hadi in power and failed. The attacks against them by the Houthis are inversely correlated to the Saudi intervention. The Saudis have been scaling back their intervention, while the Houthis are attacking them more and using firepower and weapons they obviously received from Iran. The Houthis have no reason to keep escalating against KSA now that KSA has virtually stopped their intervention. This would be an insane strategy - a rebel force launching extremely aggressive and escalating attacks against a large and powerful neighbor who stopped fighting them 3 years ago. The only way you can explain this is that they are doing Iran's bidding. As the weapons are Iranian, this is hardly far-fetched.
- elgenie 7y ago
  Since the elements of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis date back to the 1930s, you can safely assume that it will ebb and flow according to each sides’ capabilities and willingness to seek advantage in the absence of a formal accord. As for the fantasy of Saudi Arabia stopping intervention, they bombed a Houthi site in Dhamar less than two weeks ago in continuation of their bombing campaign of the last four years. That attack, which killed around 100 people, was merely the deadliest in this extremely dirty conflict, and likely sparked the Houthi reprisal.
  - elgenie 7y ago
    * deadliest this year