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The linked article (edit: it has been changed) is rather confusing so I'd like to highlight the fact that the underlying study[1] hints at two very specific obs

The linked article (edit: it has been changed) is rather confusing so I'd like to highlight the fact that the underlying study[1] hints at two very specific observations: 1) The effectiveness started to decrease after 18 months: the population of Ae. aegypti progressively returned back to its normal levels—and this despite the continued release every week of 450 thousand males of the modified strain. 2) Some hybrid offspring between the release strain and the Jacobina population are sufficiently robust to be able to reproduce in nature. Even though it was thought previously that they would be too weak to reproduce and thus not pass the modified genes to their offspring. The first observation is concerning because this means that this technique might only work in the short-term. This is probably not a silver bullet to eradicate mosquito-borne diseases. The second observation is probably much more worrying because it hints at unwanted side effects. We don't know yet the exact consequences of having these hybrid strains roaming free in nature. The most likely explanation however is that since they are weaker, they'll be progressively selected out and disappear. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49660-6.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49660-6.pdf

phkahler 7y ago
3) Two other species from different regions moved in during the population drop. Now they're I interbreeding which may lead to more robust variants.
- maxerickson 7y ago
  The two other species are the species the released mosquitoes were hybridized from. They didn't move in, they were brought in as part of the experiment.
  - koboll 7y ago
    The lesson here is expect failure and don't do something stupid like introduce a nonnative mosquito species, even if you're sure they won't be able to breed. Because who knows, you could be wrong.
    - maxerickson 7y ago
      Species is the wrong word, the introduced mosquitoes were the same species, just from different populations. Using one definition of species, the introduced mosquitoes wouldn't have been able to breed with the native population if they were a separate species.
rebuilder 7y ago
More generally, and IMO the most important point: an assumption was made that the modified animals would not be able to reproduce. This turns out not to be the case, and therefore the genetic modifications made are now in the wild. In this case, as far as I can tell, there's little cause for alarm. But with a different alteration, things might be worse, and one wonders about the robustness of the decision making process at play here.
- devoply 7y ago
  Did no one watch Jurassic Park? You can't put genetic alterations in the environment and expect them not to propagate. The idea that this is possible has been proven multiple times to be utterly and completely false. No matter what the level of care or control. You put it out there, and there is any possibility for it to proliferate... it will proliferate. Period. People don't learn they still think they are in control, you know that they are crazy. Just like you think anyone saying something like this is.
  - aprdm 7y ago
    Whoa loved this reference to Jurassic park, watched the movie for the 100th time yesterday, "life finds a way" I believe is the quote.
  - cwp 7y ago
    The only lessons to be learned from Jurassic Park are a) Michael Crichton is a better writer than people think b) Wow, this CGI thing is going to be huge! It's fiction. It did well because it tapped into the zeitgeist and gave form to people's fears. It is not evidence that those fears are justified.
    - devoply 7y ago
      Damn I thought it was a documentary.
    - moron4hire 7y ago
      The original Jurassic Park only used CG for the weird animated DNA stand. There dinosaurs were animatronic.
freeflight 7y ago
> The most likely explanation however is that since they are weaker, they'll be progressively selected out and disappear. Somewhere else I read the modified ones passing on their weakness is considered a feature and not a bug. But 18 months is a whole lot of generations of mosquitoes, shouldn't it have disappeared already by now?

phkahler 7y ago

3) Two other species from different regions moved in during the population drop. Now they're I interbreeding which may lead to more robust variants.

maxerickson 7y ago
The two other species are the species the released mosquitoes were hybridized from. They didn't move in, they were brought in as part of the experiment.
- koboll 7y ago
  The lesson here is expect failure and don't do something stupid like introduce a nonnative mosquito species, even if you're sure they won't be able to breed. Because who knows, you could be wrong.
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    Species is the wrong word, the introduced mosquitoes were the same species, just from different populations. Using one definition of species, the introduced mosquitoes wouldn't have been able to breed with the native population if they were a separate species.

rebuilder 7y ago

More generally, and IMO the most important point: an assumption was made that the modified animals would not be able to reproduce. This turns out not to be the case, and therefore the genetic modifications made are now in the wild. In this case, as far as I can tell, there's little cause for alarm. But with a different alteration, things might be worse, and one wonders about the robustness of the decision making process at play here.

devoply 7y ago
Did no one watch Jurassic Park? You can't put genetic alterations in the environment and expect them not to propagate. The idea that this is possible has been proven multiple times to be utterly and completely false. No matter what the level of care or control. You put it out there, and there is any possibility for it to proliferate... it will proliferate. Period. People don't learn they still think they are in control, you know that they are crazy. Just like you think anyone saying something like this is.
- aprdm 7y ago
  Whoa loved this reference to Jurassic park, watched the movie for the 100th time yesterday, "life finds a way" I believe is the quote.
- cwp 7y ago
  The only lessons to be learned from Jurassic Park are a) Michael Crichton is a better writer than people think b) Wow, this CGI thing is going to be huge! It's fiction. It did well because it tapped into the zeitgeist and gave form to people's fears. It is not evidence that those fears are justified.
  - devoply 7y ago
    Damn I thought it was a documentary.
  - moron4hire 7y ago
    The original Jurassic Park only used CG for the weird animated DNA stand. There dinosaurs were animatronic.

freeflight 7y ago

> The most likely explanation however is that since they are weaker, they'll be progressively selected out and disappear. Somewhere else I read the modified ones passing on their weakness is considered a feature and not a bug. But 18 months is a whole lot of generations of mosquitoes, shouldn't it have disappeared already by now?