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This is an interesting comment >> However, many observers consider that the Iranian role has been exaggerated, taking a fairly distant supporting role at most,

This is an interesting comment >> However, many observers consider that the Iranian role has been exaggerated, taking a fairly distant supporting role at most, with the Houthis acting very much on their own agenda, rather than as an Iranian proxy. Overall, the evidence from SIPRI data, the UN panel, and other sources, appears to support the idea that, while Iranian arms supplies have not been trivial, the primary sources of arms from the Houthis has been local, from those sections of the Yemeni army that supported them, from their former pro-Saleh allies, captured weapons, and the sort of locally assembled equipment discussed above. [#] https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2019/03/19/who-is-arming-the-yemen-war-an-update/ https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2019/03/19/who-is-a... Thanks to earlier post for the link The implication from tufts is that this is not rebels firing missiles made elsewhere but assembling parts from global (dual use?) supply chains - which does rather imply drone / UAv manufacturing is within reach of any state and most groupings.

tomohawk 7y ago
Without Iran, there is no Houthi force that matters. Iranian ships provide supplies. Iranian advisors train. Strategy is coordinated by Iran. https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/04/13/iran-developing-houthis-as-its-long-term-asset/ https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/04/13/iran-developing-houth...
londons_explore 7y ago
> which does rather imply drone / UAv manufacturing is within reach of any state and most groupings This could totally have been done by someone with a $100 drone, a grenade, and a few weeks of electronics work. Program the drone to wait 1 week, take off, fly to the target, and trigger the grenade. The fact the target was a tank of petrol will do the rest. Do this 100 times on the same night, and the attacker could have a real impact on a nations economy.
- NeverFade 7y ago
  No, half of KSA's oil production capacity was not taken out by a $100 drone carrying a grenade. That's like saying you can bring down a massive skyscraper by hurling a lit match into its generator room. Yes, in theory it can hit the right spot at the right time to start a massive chain reaction, but the odds of that actually happening are impossibly low. Now multiply by the number of facilities that were hit, and it's the odds of winning N different lotteries with N random tickets. No, this was done with far more sophisticated military-grade attack drones, backed by robust Command and Control system. Very likely it was done by the HESA Ababil drone that Iran is known to have supplied to the Houthis and was involved in prior Houthi attacks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil Not the sort of drone you can buy on Amazon for $100.
kingofpandora 7y ago
Yeah, it's common for many to assume Iranian aligned factions such as the Houthis or Hezbollah have no agency, motivations or origins of their own.
- NeverFade 7y ago
  The Houthis wouldn't be so keen to wage war on a rich, large, powerful nation like KSA if the Iranians weren't commanding them to do it. Also notice how dramatically they stepped up their campaign against KSA since Iran launched its aggressive campaign to lash out against economic sanctions. There's no inherent reasons the Houthis should be launching sophisticated, high-impact attacks on KSA on a weekly basis. This sort of escalation makes no sense within their own geopolitical context, but makes perfect sense when you consider Iran's contexts and regional goals. Same for Hezbollah group in Lebanon against Israel. All the recent tensions in that conflict can't be explained by the organic interests of the Lebanese nation or people. In fact, a conflict with Israel is against the Lebanese national interest and would lead to great destruction in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah is escalating and building up towards that very conflict. The vast majority of Hezbollah's budget is contributed by Iran: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funding_of_Hezbollah#Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funding_of_Hezbollah#Iran Iran can ill afford to make that investment if they don't get much out of it, and it's pretty accurate to say Hezbollah is acting according to the interest of Iran far more than any other set of interests, including the Lebanese interest. Hezbollah owes its power and arguably its existence to Iran. It's naive to expect it to act independently of Iranian interests.
  - AlexMuir 7y ago
    You’ve written the same comment twice. Can you give an example of Iran’s violent lashing out?
    - NeverFade 7y ago
      Most of Iran's violent actions were done by proxies, exactly as happened in this case. I provided multiple Wikipedia links with sources showing how these proxies are armed and directed by Iran. Here's another article about their military activity in Iraq: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_intervention_in_Iraq_(2014–present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_intervention_in_Iraq_(... Besides that, they have been involved recently in multiple actions to seize oil tankers, culminating in the seizure of a British-flagged tanker: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/20/world/middleeast/iran-tanker-uk-hormuz.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/20/world/middleeast/iran-tan... They seized other tankers as well, for instance: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49225916 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49225916
NeverFade 7y ago
That quote you presented states that many of the arms held by the Houthis were not supplied by Iran. True or not, this assertion does not support the subsequent that "the Houthis acting very much on their own agenda, rather than as an Iranian proxy". Even if the Houthis obtain armament from other sources, they may absolutely be following Iranian agenda. Indeed it seems hardly coincidental that their campaign against KSA has been escalating in lockstep with Iran's campaign of violently lashing out against the sanctions imposed upon it. Moreover, there's very clear evidence that Iran (through IRGC) is supplying the Houthis with their most sophisticated weapons, such as Kornet missiles and indeed drones like those used in this attack: > The Houthis have repeatedly used a drone that is nearly identical to Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company's Ababil-T drone in strikes against Saudi Arabia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement#IRGC_involvement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement#IRGC_involveme... So whether it has other sources to acquire arms seems quite irrelevant. The fact is, the Houthis are using sophisticated Iranian weapons in attacks that are perfectly aligned with Iranian interests (and completely unaligned with identifiable Yemenite interests). Be careful of uncritically accepting assertions that Iran isn't responsible for the actions of its various proxies. Iran has a strong interest in denying this responsibility, and indeed this denial is the core reason Iran has a proxy strategy to begin with.

tomohawk 7y ago

Without Iran, there is no Houthi force that matters. Iranian ships provide supplies. Iranian advisors train. Strategy is coordinated by Iran. https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/04/13/iran-developing-houthis-as-its-long-term-asset/ https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/04/13/iran-developing-houth...

londons_explore 7y ago

> which does rather imply drone / UAv manufacturing is within reach of any state and most groupings This could totally have been done by someone with a $100 drone, a grenade, and a few weeks of electronics work. Program the drone to wait 1 week, take off, fly to the target, and trigger the grenade. The fact the target was a tank of petrol will do the rest. Do this 100 times on the same night, and the attacker could have a real impact on a nations economy.

NeverFade 7y ago
No, half of KSA's oil production capacity was not taken out by a $100 drone carrying a grenade. That's like saying you can bring down a massive skyscraper by hurling a lit match into its generator room. Yes, in theory it can hit the right spot at the right time to start a massive chain reaction, but the odds of that actually happening are impossibly low. Now multiply by the number of facilities that were hit, and it's the odds of winning N different lotteries with N random tickets. No, this was done with far more sophisticated military-grade attack drones, backed by robust Command and Control system. Very likely it was done by the HESA Ababil drone that Iran is known to have supplied to the Houthis and was involved in prior Houthi attacks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil Not the sort of drone you can buy on Amazon for $100.

kingofpandora 7y ago

Yeah, it's common for many to assume Iranian aligned factions such as the Houthis or Hezbollah have no agency, motivations or origins of their own.

NeverFade 7y ago
The Houthis wouldn't be so keen to wage war on a rich, large, powerful nation like KSA if the Iranians weren't commanding them to do it. Also notice how dramatically they stepped up their campaign against KSA since Iran launched its aggressive campaign to lash out against economic sanctions. There's no inherent reasons the Houthis should be launching sophisticated, high-impact attacks on KSA on a weekly basis. This sort of escalation makes no sense within their own geopolitical context, but makes perfect sense when you consider Iran's contexts and regional goals. Same for Hezbollah group in Lebanon against Israel. All the recent tensions in that conflict can't be explained by the organic interests of the Lebanese nation or people. In fact, a conflict with Israel is against the Lebanese national interest and would lead to great destruction in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah is escalating and building up towards that very conflict. The vast majority of Hezbollah's budget is contributed by Iran: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funding_of_Hezbollah#Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funding_of_Hezbollah#Iran Iran can ill afford to make that investment if they don't get much out of it, and it's pretty accurate to say Hezbollah is acting according to the interest of Iran far more than any other set of interests, including the Lebanese interest. Hezbollah owes its power and arguably its existence to Iran. It's naive to expect it to act independently of Iranian interests.
- AlexMuir 7y ago
  You’ve written the same comment twice. Can you give an example of Iran’s violent lashing out?
  - NeverFade 7y ago
    Most of Iran's violent actions were done by proxies, exactly as happened in this case. I provided multiple Wikipedia links with sources showing how these proxies are armed and directed by Iran. Here's another article about their military activity in Iraq: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_intervention_in_Iraq_(2014–present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_intervention_in_Iraq_(... Besides that, they have been involved recently in multiple actions to seize oil tankers, culminating in the seizure of a British-flagged tanker: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/20/world/middleeast/iran-tanker-uk-hormuz.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/20/world/middleeast/iran-tan... They seized other tankers as well, for instance: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49225916 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49225916

NeverFade 7y ago

That quote you presented states that many of the arms held by the Houthis were not supplied by Iran. True or not, this assertion does not support the subsequent that "the Houthis acting very much on their own agenda, rather than as an Iranian proxy". Even if the Houthis obtain armament from other sources, they may absolutely be following Iranian agenda. Indeed it seems hardly coincidental that their campaign against KSA has been escalating in lockstep with Iran's campaign of violently lashing out against the sanctions imposed upon it. Moreover, there's very clear evidence that Iran (through IRGC) is supplying the Houthis with their most sophisticated weapons, such as Kornet missiles and indeed drones like those used in this attack: > The Houthis have repeatedly used a drone that is nearly identical to Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company's Ababil-T drone in strikes against Saudi Arabia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement#IRGC_involvement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement#IRGC_involveme... So whether it has other sources to acquire arms seems quite irrelevant. The fact is, the Houthis are using sophisticated Iranian weapons in attacks that are perfectly aligned with Iranian interests (and completely unaligned with identifiable Yemenite interests). Be careful of uncritically accepting assertions that Iran isn't responsible for the actions of its various proxies. Iran has a strong interest in denying this responsibility, and indeed this denial is the core reason Iran has a proxy strategy to begin with.