4 ms·
Also called the "Iocaine Powder" strategy in Rock Paper Scissors (RoShamBo) [1]. The question being, how many "levels" of meta is optimal given the opponent(s)
by fancyfish 7y ago
Also called the "Iocaine Powder" strategy in Rock Paper Scissors (RoShamBo) [1]. The question being, how many "levels" of meta is optimal given the opponent(s) involved?
RoShamBo strategies attempt to predict what the opponent will do. Given a successful prediction, it is easy to defeat the opponent (if you know they will play rock, you play paper). However, straightforward prediction will often fail; the opponent may not be vulnerable to prediction, or worse, they might have anticipated your predictive logic and played accordingly. Iocaine Powder's meta-strategy expands any predictive algorithm P into six possible strategies:
P.0: naive application
Assume the opponent is vulnerable to prediction by P; predict their next move, and play to beat it. If P predicts your opponent will play rock, play paper to cover rock. This is the obvious application of P.
P.1: defeat second-guessing
Assume the opponent thinks you will use P.0. If P predicts rock, P.0 would play paper to cover rock, but the opponent could anticipate this move and play scissors to cut paper. Instead, you play rock to dull scissors.
P.2: defeat triple-guessing
Assume the opponent thinks you will use P.1. Your opponent thinks you will play rock to dull the scissors they would have played to cut the paper you would have played to cover the rock P would have predicted, so they will play paper to cover your rock. But you one-up them, playing scissors to cut their paper.
At this point, you should be getting weary of the endless chain. "We could second-guess each other forever," you say. But no; because of the nature of RoShamBo, P.3 recommends you play paper -- just like P.0! So we're only left with these three strategies, each of which will suggest a different alternative. (This may not seem useful to you, but have patience.)
[1] [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20073703 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20073703]
- darepublic 7y agoThe escape hatch is deciding based on some pseudo-random criteria in your vicinity. This also reminds me of the TNG episode Peak Performance where Data starts going down this meta rabbit hole.
- travisjungroth 7y agoDo you know of a way to generate pseudo random numbers in your head? (Honest question)
- aaron-santos 7y agoCan't remember the source, but using the nasal cycle[1] as a source of randomness has been suggested before. The only drawback is the cycle length is on the order of 30 min to 6h so drawing more then 1bit/day is probably infeasible. [1] - https://www.rhinologyonline.org/Rhinology_online_issues/2018/18021_Pendolino.pdf https://www.rhinologyonline.org/Rhinology_online_issues/2018...
- bobbyi_settv 7y agoThe conventional technique in poker is to glance at the seconds hand on your watch
- travisjungroth 7y agoOh nice thanks
- katzgrau 7y agoI was scrolling through and thinking of RPS exactly. Very interesting post. I once played my younger brother to 50 wins (whoever got there first was the unquestioned champion of RPS). It got very, very meta and there was drama in every round. We would pace around planning the next move and then meet up and shoot. An unexpected outcome after that much planning and pressure created some hilarity. Long story short, I beat him 50-28, so I do feel I was out leveling/reading him to some degree. Maybe some obvious pattern I picked up on but didn't notice. Ps, we were both adults. Great game though.
- ALittleLight 7y agoMy brother and I would play a variation of rock, paper, scissors, where, prior to making a play, you'd have to tell the other person what you would play though lying was acceptable. We felt like it added a psychological dimension to the game - but I'm not really sure how it affected play. Neither of us could reliably detect when the other was lying.
- klenwell 7y agoI feel like this could be the basis of an interesting, what, Comedy Central show maybe? Get two semi-famous people together every week. Have them play RPS to 10 or 20 wins. Just enough to get to the meta mind games and drama but not long enough to drag on. Maybe design some kind of goofy little arena for them. Let them dress up in costumes. Put some medium stakes charity donation on the line. An announcer and color commentator calling the match. I wanna see Ken Jennings take on Annie Duke. Dennis Rodman battle Sebastian Bach.