3 ms·

You are assuming that the civilization that sent it is trying to be stealthy. Not to mention at only 60,000 mph (Oumuamua) or 90,000 mph (C/2019 Q4) these prob

by sliken 7y ago

You are assuming that the civilization that sent it is trying to be stealthy. Not to mention at only 60,000 mph (Oumuamua) or 90,000 mph (C/2019 Q4) these probes need to be designed for many 100,000 years of travel if not millions. During that time they will see quasars, supernovas, and a wide variety of high energy particles. Might well make more sense to have many feet of rock as shielding instead of trying to keep a high power energy source going for that long. If you are patient gravity assisted slingshots makes quite a bit of sense.

elorant 7y ago
And how does a second probe in a two year span fits this theory? If you send out probes with the intention to crawl the galaxy for hundreds of thousands of years then the chances of two of them entering the same region in a two year timespan are nonexistent.
- sliken 7y ago
  Well lets assume there's probes somewhat equally distributed in the galaxy, and that there's many tiny probes and fewer larger probes. Assuming enough technology for replicating probes the number of probes in the galaxy is limited only by time and materials. Presumably if you are watching a galaxy you are quite patient and a few 100,000 years is no big deal. With that kind of experience you've likely figured out what signature events are related to the rise of intelligence. It's hard to speculate on the technology, sensors, and intelligence of the probe makers. Maybe the signature even to watch for is plankton, oxygen, and being in the Goldilocks zone (billions of years ago)? Changes in atmospheric chemistry related to clearing forests and cooking? (1000-10,000 years ago)? Emissions of radio waves (75 years)? Whatever that threshold was, it might have been triggered in the past and a slow moving smaller ship was first (Oumuamua), now a few years later a somewhat faster (15%) larger ship is coming for a look. Fun to think about anyways... at least we saw this one coming so anyone that wants a closer look will have the chance.
  - elorant 7y ago
    15% faster is too low. If they're far away, as the scenario with the long term probing implies, then the second probe should be orders of magnitude faster.

by sliken 7y ago

elorant 7y ago

And how does a second probe in a two year span fits this theory? If you send out probes with the intention to crawl the galaxy for hundreds of thousands of years then the chances of two of them entering the same region in a two year timespan are nonexistent.

sliken 7y ago
Well lets assume there's probes somewhat equally distributed in the galaxy, and that there's many tiny probes and fewer larger probes. Assuming enough technology for replicating probes the number of probes in the galaxy is limited only by time and materials. Presumably if you are watching a galaxy you are quite patient and a few 100,000 years is no big deal. With that kind of experience you've likely figured out what signature events are related to the rise of intelligence. It's hard to speculate on the technology, sensors, and intelligence of the probe makers. Maybe the signature even to watch for is plankton, oxygen, and being in the Goldilocks zone (billions of years ago)? Changes in atmospheric chemistry related to clearing forests and cooking? (1000-10,000 years ago)? Emissions of radio waves (75 years)? Whatever that threshold was, it might have been triggered in the past and a slow moving smaller ship was first (Oumuamua), now a few years later a somewhat faster (15%) larger ship is coming for a look. Fun to think about anyways... at least we saw this one coming so anyone that wants a closer look will have the chance.
- elorant 7y ago
  15% faster is too low. If they're far away, as the scenario with the long term probing implies, then the second probe should be orders of magnitude faster.