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I’m not sure how we can ever get rid of them. We can dismantle the current stockpile, promise not to build any more, but they can’t be uninvented. If the world

I’m not sure how we can ever get rid of them. We can dismantle the current stockpile, promise not to build any more, but they can’t be uninvented. If the world disarms, then the first country to build new new ones has the world hostage.

acqq 7y ago
It's not what is suggested: now the nuclear countries already have orders of magnitude more than the minimum needed to be credible: there's on a shortest notice enough for the whole civilization to be destroyed. There will be no winners, even if the army leaders behave as there would. And if you know enough about technology, there's no system where the accidents never happen. We were just lucky up to now, but it doesn't prove anything. See Nassim Taleb's turkey example: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-thanksgiving-turkey-2014-11 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-... "“A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher, every day is a confirmation to his team of analysts that butchers love turkeys” with statistical confidence increasing daily. “The butcher will continue to feed the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving Day. And then comes the time when it’s not really a good idea to be a turkey. Being surprised by the butcher, the turkey reviews his beliefs when his confidence in the assertion that the butcher loves Turkeys is at its peak and the Turkey’s life is “very serene” and mildly predictable. This example is based on the adaptation of a metaphor created by Bertrand Russell. From the Turkey’s story, we can also identify the source of all prejudicial errors: confusing the absence of evidence (damages) with the evidence of its absence“" The treaties about the control between the countries already existed, allowing one country to control another claims and that did reduce the amount of the weapons. One can see that they didn't dismantle enough however to reduce the threat enough. However: August 2019: "Donald Trump officially terminated a longstanding U.S. nuclear treaty with Russia, potentially signaling the beginning of the end of the arms control architecture that has regulated nuclear weapons since the Cold War." The sane policy would move in another direction. https://thebulletin.org/2019/08/the-inf-treaty-is-done-but-lessons-for-policy-remain/ https://thebulletin.org/2019/08/the-inf-treaty-is-done-but-l... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/doomsday-clock-2019-two-minutes-midnight-nuclear-war-new-abnormal https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/doomsday-clock... "We are like passengers on the Titanic, ignoring the iceberg ahead" ... "the political response is alarming. It’s akin to sleepwalking"

acqq 7y ago

It's not what is suggested: now the nuclear countries already have orders of magnitude more than the minimum needed to be credible: there's on a shortest notice enough for the whole civilization to be destroyed. There will be no winners, even if the army leaders behave as there would. And if you know enough about technology, there's no system where the accidents never happen. We were just lucky up to now, but it doesn't prove anything. See Nassim Taleb's turkey example: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-thanksgiving-turkey-2014-11 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-... "“A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher, every day is a confirmation to his team of analysts that butchers love turkeys” with statistical confidence increasing daily. “The butcher will continue to feed the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving Day. And then comes the time when it’s not really a good idea to be a turkey. Being surprised by the butcher, the turkey reviews his beliefs when his confidence in the assertion that the butcher loves Turkeys is at its peak and the Turkey’s life is “very serene” and mildly predictable. This example is based on the adaptation of a metaphor created by Bertrand Russell. From the Turkey’s story, we can also identify the source of all prejudicial errors: confusing the absence of evidence (damages) with the evidence of its absence“" The treaties about the control between the countries already existed, allowing one country to control another claims and that did reduce the amount of the weapons. One can see that they didn't dismantle enough however to reduce the threat enough. However: August 2019: "Donald Trump officially terminated a longstanding U.S. nuclear treaty with Russia, potentially signaling the beginning of the end of the arms control architecture that has regulated nuclear weapons since the Cold War." The sane policy would move in another direction. https://thebulletin.org/2019/08/the-inf-treaty-is-done-but-lessons-for-policy-remain/ https://thebulletin.org/2019/08/the-inf-treaty-is-done-but-l... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/doomsday-clock-2019-two-minutes-midnight-nuclear-war-new-abnormal https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/doomsday-clock... "We are like passengers on the Titanic, ignoring the iceberg ahead" ... "the political response is alarming. It’s akin to sleepwalking"