4 ms·

Apple's strategy is holding on to the brand, while competitors slowly chip away at their market share, awaiting a mortal blow to their entire hardware-centric b

Apple's strategy is holding on to the brand, while competitors slowly chip away at their market share, awaiting a mortal blow to their entire hardware-centric business strategy from cloud-first computing. Once most business software has a cloud equivalent that can run via an internet connection (Google is already trying to roll this out for gaming, wrong direction of course), Windows and Mac are finished. Once Windows and Mac are finished, it'll only be a matter of coming up with a new phone os that can run on 50-100$ devices (or android, yuck) and then Apple is really finished. Who's going to spend 2k on a macbook, 1k on an iPhone and 500$ on a watch, when you can have a 200$ computer, 100$ phone and 50$ watch that do nearly the same thing. Oh, and a 200$ point-and-shoot camera that'll forever beat any phone-camera due to camera size limitations inherent to phones. In fact I predict the next big consumer hit will be a point-and-shoot camera with a phone os. Microsoft knows this, Google knows it too - they're building out planet-wide infrastructure for cloud-first computing that's coming. Apple is jerking around with 0 progress on all of its platforms, milking brand loyalty, producing pretty, severely over-priced trinkets (awful battery life, awful keyboards, awful screen burn-in, insane ssd prices, awful ports requiring insanely over-priced adapters) to signal allegiance to a middle-class or up caste, and making their shareholders short-term rich, while long-term poor.

majormajor 7y ago
> Once most business software has a cloud equivalent that can run via an internet connection (Google is already trying to roll this out for gaming, wrong direction of course), Windows and Mac are finished. The desktop software I use day to day (IntelliJ, Zoom, Slack) already runs on Linux. The rest is already in the cloud. And yet, of my coworkers, we have about 1 in 50 folks running Linux instead of Mac. It's been this way for the last 6 years - I was actually on Linux in 2013, but have come back to Mac because it's still just all put together a bit nicer in both software and hardware. My last job even discontinued Linux support in that time period. At my partner's job, they also run on google docs and gmail, but since it's not a software dev job, it's 100% on Mac, without even that small Linux fraction.
- nojvek 7y ago
  Running crap on cloud works great until you’re above the cloud or really below the cloud. Powerful edge devices will always be valuable. iPhone is prolly one of the most powerful edge devices out there
- prepend 7y ago
  I run Mac because it’s the simplest Unix laptop. I think this might change a bit with windows new embracing of Linux as part of the desktop OS. My hope is that by win11, they’ll have better integration and some hardware manufacturer will make a laptop that’s light, big, and has a good touchpad.
neya 7y ago
Not just that, they've resorted to misleading advertising practices at this point. That is so unlike the Apple we used to know. https://www.facebook.com/groups/ih8apple/permalink/10156462383225924/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/ih8apple/permalink/101564623...
beautifulfreak 7y ago
Products becoming commoditized won't take Apple by surprise. Think of how they survived commoditization of mp3 players, "disrupting" the iPod themselves. They pay attention to logistics curves and can predict with great certainty how viable their products will be long into the future. If the bottom drops out they won't be standing on it, partly because they will always remember the Windows disruption of the 90s. That's just my opinion. The same author offered his opinion in 2010, addressing your point, and drawing upon "The Innovator's Dilemma" by Clay Christensen. https://stratechery.com/2010/apple-innovators-dilemma/ https://stratechery.com/2010/apple-innovators-dilemma/
neya 7y ago
Downvoters should actually explain why they think this comment doesn't add value or violate guidelines rather than just get butthurt about it and react. How typical.
- sbuk 7y ago
  I believe the comment doesn't add value becase; a) It's supposition presented (somewhat aggressively) as fact. b) It's the same old trite "Apple is doomed" prophecy that is trotted out every time there is a product announcement. As to your comment; "Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading."
Terretta 7y ago
> Apple's strategy is holding on to the brand, while competitors slowly chip away... This generation could indeed mount the first meaningful blow to legacy PC-based gear as primary device, but it's not coming from a competitor. > Once Windows and Mac are finished, it'll only be a matter of coming up with a new phone os... Did you miss Apple's "What's a computer?" campaign? iPadOS 13 is the new tablet usability OS for the only primary device quality tablet on the market. Using a USB-C dock, my same desktop gear works with my MacBook or my iPad Pro. I can even use my full size monitor, keyboard, and trackball driving Windows in a Citrix VDI. - - - > In fact I predict the next big consumer hit will be a point-and-shoot camera with a phone os. That was already a thing in 2012: Samsung Galaxy Camera. They also tried the Samsung Galaxy NX, and the Samsung Galaxy Camera 2. Didn't catch on, but hasn't stopped people from trying over and over: https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/11/5/18064048/yongnuo-yn450-mirrorless-camera-canon-lenses-android-nougat https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/11/5/18064048/y... Started shipping this August in China: http://thenewcamera.com/yongnuo-yn450-4g-mirrorless-shipping-started-in-china/ http://thenewcamera.com/yongnuo-yn450-4g-mirrorless-shipping... Turns out, it's pretty difficult to beat the utility of "the camera you have with you" form factor of a more typically shaped smartphone.
- alexashka 7y ago
  Interesting response, thank you. Those mirrorless camera-phone things you linked look like Microsoft tablets before iPads came. Microsoft had the idea, just not the execution chops, for many many years. It's only confirming my conviction that it is an unbelievably potent idea, that needs a few billion poured into it to do it right. Regarding PC vs tablet vs phone - that is not what I'm thinking at all. It is not a matter of dummies wanting OSes for 7 year olds as their primary device, it's that computation will not be done on your hardware, it'll be displayed on your hardware aka pretty lcd/oled screen. Cameras are the one exception to this rule which is why I predict it'll be regular thin screens with super fast internet, and more bulky (size of current iPhones) with replaceable lens and specialized GPUs for processing raw camera input. This is more obvious with games - instead of everyone having a 2k gaming rig, everyone will have a 200$ monitor with a fast internet connection, connecting to super-computers run by Google. It's basically Unix multi-user, except now done via 'the cloud'. That's the future - and Apple has no place in it with its 30% profit margins on hardware. I think Apple knows it in the long term too, which is why they're slowly and awfully, getting into content aka games and tv.

majormajor 7y ago

> Once most business software has a cloud equivalent that can run via an internet connection (Google is already trying to roll this out for gaming, wrong direction of course), Windows and Mac are finished. The desktop software I use day to day (IntelliJ, Zoom, Slack) already runs on Linux. The rest is already in the cloud. And yet, of my coworkers, we have about 1 in 50 folks running Linux instead of Mac. It's been this way for the last 6 years - I was actually on Linux in 2013, but have come back to Mac because it's still just all put together a bit nicer in both software and hardware. My last job even discontinued Linux support in that time period. At my partner's job, they also run on google docs and gmail, but since it's not a software dev job, it's 100% on Mac, without even that small Linux fraction.

nojvek 7y ago
Running crap on cloud works great until you’re above the cloud or really below the cloud. Powerful edge devices will always be valuable. iPhone is prolly one of the most powerful edge devices out there
prepend 7y ago
I run Mac because it’s the simplest Unix laptop. I think this might change a bit with windows new embracing of Linux as part of the desktop OS. My hope is that by win11, they’ll have better integration and some hardware manufacturer will make a laptop that’s light, big, and has a good touchpad.

neya 7y ago

Not just that, they've resorted to misleading advertising practices at this point. That is so unlike the Apple we used to know. https://www.facebook.com/groups/ih8apple/permalink/10156462383225924/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/ih8apple/permalink/101564623...

beautifulfreak 7y ago

Products becoming commoditized won't take Apple by surprise. Think of how they survived commoditization of mp3 players, "disrupting" the iPod themselves. They pay attention to logistics curves and can predict with great certainty how viable their products will be long into the future. If the bottom drops out they won't be standing on it, partly because they will always remember the Windows disruption of the 90s. That's just my opinion. The same author offered his opinion in 2010, addressing your point, and drawing upon "The Innovator's Dilemma" by Clay Christensen. https://stratechery.com/2010/apple-innovators-dilemma/ https://stratechery.com/2010/apple-innovators-dilemma/

neya 7y ago

Downvoters should actually explain why they think this comment doesn't add value or violate guidelines rather than just get butthurt about it and react. How typical.

sbuk 7y ago
I believe the comment doesn't add value becase; a) It's supposition presented (somewhat aggressively) as fact. b) It's the same old trite "Apple is doomed" prophecy that is trotted out every time there is a product announcement. As to your comment; "Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading."

Terretta 7y ago

> Apple's strategy is holding on to the brand, while competitors slowly chip away... This generation could indeed mount the first meaningful blow to legacy PC-based gear as primary device, but it's not coming from a competitor. > Once Windows and Mac are finished, it'll only be a matter of coming up with a new phone os... Did you miss Apple's "What's a computer?" campaign? iPadOS 13 is the new tablet usability OS for the only primary device quality tablet on the market. Using a USB-C dock, my same desktop gear works with my MacBook or my iPad Pro. I can even use my full size monitor, keyboard, and trackball driving Windows in a Citrix VDI. - - - > In fact I predict the next big consumer hit will be a point-and-shoot camera with a phone os. That was already a thing in 2012: Samsung Galaxy Camera. They also tried the Samsung Galaxy NX, and the Samsung Galaxy Camera 2. Didn't catch on, but hasn't stopped people from trying over and over: https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/11/5/18064048/yongnuo-yn450-mirrorless-camera-canon-lenses-android-nougat https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/11/5/18064048/y... Started shipping this August in China: http://thenewcamera.com/yongnuo-yn450-4g-mirrorless-shipping-started-in-china/ http://thenewcamera.com/yongnuo-yn450-4g-mirrorless-shipping... Turns out, it's pretty difficult to beat the utility of "the camera you have with you" form factor of a more typically shaped smartphone.

alexashka 7y ago
Interesting response, thank you. Those mirrorless camera-phone things you linked look like Microsoft tablets before iPads came. Microsoft had the idea, just not the execution chops, for many many years. It's only confirming my conviction that it is an unbelievably potent idea, that needs a few billion poured into it to do it right. Regarding PC vs tablet vs phone - that is not what I'm thinking at all. It is not a matter of dummies wanting OSes for 7 year olds as their primary device, it's that computation will not be done on your hardware, it'll be displayed on your hardware aka pretty lcd/oled screen. Cameras are the one exception to this rule which is why I predict it'll be regular thin screens with super fast internet, and more bulky (size of current iPhones) with replaceable lens and specialized GPUs for processing raw camera input. This is more obvious with games - instead of everyone having a 2k gaming rig, everyone will have a 200$ monitor with a fast internet connection, connecting to super-computers run by Google. It's basically Unix multi-user, except now done via 'the cloud'. That's the future - and Apple has no place in it with its 30% profit margins on hardware. I think Apple knows it in the long term too, which is why they're slowly and awfully, getting into content aka games and tv.