5 ms·

Will the US economy experience a recession in the next... 100 years? Yes!!!! 50 years? Yes!!! 25 years? Yes!! 12.5 years? Yes! 6.25 years? Yes 3.125 years

Will the US economy experience a recession in the next... 100 years? Yes!!!! 50 years? Yes!!! 25 years? Yes!! 12.5 years? Yes! 6.25 years? Yes 3.125 years? Yes? 1.5625 years? Maybe .78125 years? Maybe? .390625 years? No? 0.1953125 years? No 0.09765625 years? No!

TuringNYC 7y ago
This is the best reply. We really don't know, and only greater horizons provide greater certainty of a recession. Further, we're now in a society where a third of the population lives in a perma-recession where they have not actually recovered from the previous one -- while another section of society lives in permanently good times -- so it is hard to gauge recession from looking around you.
tinktank 7y ago
You make an astute point lost to those trying to time the market.
- bhouston 7y ago
  I decided to be mostly cash now rather than stocks. I just can not buy stocks when they are this high as I worry what is the upside. Stock markets fall the most as soon as we enter into a recession and they recover fast so I want to be prepared. I am likely too soon though...
  - novaRom 7y ago
    How do you define it's high? P/E ratio of most value stocks is not much higher than ever. Don't exclude technological advancements, they really contribute a lot to economical growth.
benj111 7y ago
People have been calling the next recession for more than 3 years, it'll be fun to return to this prediction when we actually do have a recession, as you think it's likely within 3 years. By the way, a recession is technically 2 quarters of negative growth, so assuming we start from when we actually know we're in recession, it's a minimum of 6 months from now before we are in recession so ".390625 years" would be a definite no.
- aeternum 7y ago
  The market is level two chaotic system, meaning it reacts to predictions about it. The predictions may have been correct if it weren't for the fact that the predictions themselves perturbed the system.

TuringNYC 7y ago

This is the best reply. We really don't know, and only greater horizons provide greater certainty of a recession. Further, we're now in a society where a third of the population lives in a perma-recession where they have not actually recovered from the previous one -- while another section of society lives in permanently good times -- so it is hard to gauge recession from looking around you.

tinktank 7y ago

You make an astute point lost to those trying to time the market.

bhouston 7y ago
I decided to be mostly cash now rather than stocks. I just can not buy stocks when they are this high as I worry what is the upside. Stock markets fall the most as soon as we enter into a recession and they recover fast so I want to be prepared. I am likely too soon though...
- novaRom 7y ago
  How do you define it's high? P/E ratio of most value stocks is not much higher than ever. Don't exclude technological advancements, they really contribute a lot to economical growth.

benj111 7y ago

People have been calling the next recession for more than 3 years, it'll be fun to return to this prediction when we actually do have a recession, as you think it's likely within 3 years. By the way, a recession is technically 2 quarters of negative growth, so assuming we start from when we actually know we're in recession, it's a minimum of 6 months from now before we are in recession so ".390625 years" would be a definite no.

aeternum 7y ago
The market is level two chaotic system, meaning it reacts to predictions about it. The predictions may have been correct if it weren't for the fact that the predictions themselves perturbed the system.