3 ms·

I am very much a cynic. Show me references to data and let's do the math. This is HN after all. I look forward to this exercise. I have a family of Trump suppo

by 616c 7y ago

I am very much a cynic. Show me references to data and let's do the math. This is HN after all. I look forward to this exercise. I have a family of Trump supporters and I get percentages and perceptions like these from them in debate but have trouble getting them to point to those things as products of solid unbiased sources of statistical analyses.

RickJWagner 7y ago
Well, let's start with the record low unemployment for African Americans and Hispanics. Can you agree that's a great accomplishment?
- 616c 7y ago
  So I'm still here. Cite your sources. I am curious because I've heard that before in articles without references. Is it BoL statistics? Again I've read flattering headlines but not sure where raw data comes from, and I also said to a parent unemployment rates do not signify a lot to me as an adult as a positive absolute measure where underemployment and real social issues are brushed under the rug as part of number shuffling to stroke political egos. Hence I want to know data points. I think we can agree the disinterest or avoidance on both sides of the American political spectrum in analyzing factual data and not leaning on sound bites is a problem. Please reference your sources. I am interested.
  - RickJWagner 7y ago
    Hi, Glad you're still here. [1] an easy to read chart from data.bls.gov [2] is an article from Black Enterprise, just for good measure Black unemployment really is at record low levels. Trump's economy has been good for African Americans. (Rising wages help, too.) [1] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006 [2] https://www.blackenterprise.com/black-unemployment-rate-falls/ https://www.blackenterprise.com/black-unemployment-rate-fall...
    - 616c 7y ago
      So the article references the graph. Where is the raw data? This gets back to the data literacy issues. How do we empower people like you and me to know if the BKS got those numbers accurately and from where? I'll look on their site for taw data inputs. I couldn't find easily, but I am sure they have. But also let's find what kind of employment they have and see what it gets them. A graph doesn't tell me that. Also in the article it has been going down 107 months (so approaching ten years, not just since 2017 at the start of his tenure). I did not think he has been president that long, and if we look at just the graph, except for increases in the end of 2009, it seems to have been going down with some consistency since then at similar rates. Just look at the graph. So what are we crediting whom for? Why do we assume if it happened in 2017 it is an immediate consequence of presidential action at that same time that year? Also kind of dubious to me. Do you ever worry that your opinions motivate how you see data, not the other way around? I do a lot and why I also generally worry about political administrations in all countries who reference their success with correlation and not causation in this way. These kinds of conversations keep telling me they have won the perception game and we do not care to run a government like a business project and measure our success. Maybe if anything a weird ad campaign where we throw money at problems and if people's behavior changes we are certain it is the ad campaign in a vacuum and without real evidence. I hope you understand why I'm not sold on your example. Thanks.
      - 616c 7y ago
        I meant BKS to be BLS and taw to be raw. Stupid phone.

by 616c 7y ago

RickJWagner 7y ago

Well, let's start with the record low unemployment for African Americans and Hispanics. Can you agree that's a great accomplishment?

616c 7y ago
So I'm still here. Cite your sources. I am curious because I've heard that before in articles without references. Is it BoL statistics? Again I've read flattering headlines but not sure where raw data comes from, and I also said to a parent unemployment rates do not signify a lot to me as an adult as a positive absolute measure where underemployment and real social issues are brushed under the rug as part of number shuffling to stroke political egos. Hence I want to know data points. I think we can agree the disinterest or avoidance on both sides of the American political spectrum in analyzing factual data and not leaning on sound bites is a problem. Please reference your sources. I am interested.
- RickJWagner 7y ago
  Hi, Glad you're still here. [1] an easy to read chart from data.bls.gov [2] is an article from Black Enterprise, just for good measure Black unemployment really is at record low levels. Trump's economy has been good for African Americans. (Rising wages help, too.) [1] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006 [2] https://www.blackenterprise.com/black-unemployment-rate-falls/ https://www.blackenterprise.com/black-unemployment-rate-fall...
  - 616c 7y ago
    So the article references the graph. Where is the raw data? This gets back to the data literacy issues. How do we empower people like you and me to know if the BKS got those numbers accurately and from where? I'll look on their site for taw data inputs. I couldn't find easily, but I am sure they have. But also let's find what kind of employment they have and see what it gets them. A graph doesn't tell me that. Also in the article it has been going down 107 months (so approaching ten years, not just since 2017 at the start of his tenure). I did not think he has been president that long, and if we look at just the graph, except for increases in the end of 2009, it seems to have been going down with some consistency since then at similar rates. Just look at the graph. So what are we crediting whom for? Why do we assume if it happened in 2017 it is an immediate consequence of presidential action at that same time that year? Also kind of dubious to me. Do you ever worry that your opinions motivate how you see data, not the other way around? I do a lot and why I also generally worry about political administrations in all countries who reference their success with correlation and not causation in this way. These kinds of conversations keep telling me they have won the perception game and we do not care to run a government like a business project and measure our success. Maybe if anything a weird ad campaign where we throw money at problems and if people's behavior changes we are certain it is the ad campaign in a vacuum and without real evidence. I hope you understand why I'm not sold on your example. Thanks.
    - 616c 7y ago
      I meant BKS to be BLS and taw to be raw. Stupid phone.