Gruber has made definite predictions based on Verizon's ability to move iPhones (one example among others): http://daringfireball.net/linked/2010/12/09/verizon-

Gruber has made definite predictions based on Verizon's ability to move iPhones (one example among others): http://daringfireball.net/linked/2010/12/09/verizon-iphone http://daringfireball.net/linked/2010/12/09/verizon-iphone In that case, either they sell a million on day one or they don't (this presumes that we are ever told or can divine a semi-reliable sales estimate). His opinion doesn't enter into it. I'd say part of the reason he is and remains popular is that he pretty consistently tries to present the data or line of reasoning behind the opinion, and on occasion adjusts to fit the new data...and but says so when it happens.