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Numbers for wind and solar are now about $40/MWh unsubsidized according to current LCOE analysis: https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-

Numbers for wind and solar are now about $40/MWh unsubsidized according to current LCOE analysis: https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o... ...as you say, this is not the whole story as you still need storage (etc). But the floor for (unsubsidized) solar may be a lot lower than that. About $14/MWh: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-floor-for-ultra-low-solar-bids-14-per-megawatt-hour https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-floor-for-u... And we're already seeing bids nearly that low: https://www.pv-tech.org/news/brazil-auction-sets-record-low-solar-price-of-us17.5-mwh https://www.pv-tech.org/news/brazil-auction-sets-record-low-... Wind is also super cheap.

omarhaneef 7y ago
Yes, we are seeing very low bids. $26-$30/MWh for solar doesn't even turn heads anymore. And battery costs are coming down too, and I think that curve looks more linear, but its coming down. One of the issues is that these costs are so capital intensive that the financing costs drive a lot of the price drop. With near zero or negative rates in so much of the world, I think its hard to tell what the real rates would be.
- beat 7y ago
  Capital costs are a legit concern. If something happens in international markets that causes interest rates to spike globally, it will set back the pace of conversion tremendously.
  - Analemma_ 7y ago
    “Fortunately” we appear to be heading into a recession, so I doubt high interest rates are on the way any time soon.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    Any way to leverage negative interest rates from developed countries into renewables? Very interested if someone knows how to facilitate such a bond issue.
beat 7y ago
I really hope so! I think we need to see wind/solar at half the cost of gas to really break gas as an energy source. And battery storage is quite expensive for now - hundreds of dollars per mwh. Of course, there are other interesting alternatives, too - thermal storage, gravity, compressed air, etc. But conversion losses will probably always limit those systems to 25-35% efficiency at best, plus much higher construction cost relative to solar panels.
- luc4sdreyer 7y ago
  > But conversion losses will probably always limit those systems to 25-35% efficiency at best Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but the "alternative" energy storage systems you mentioned have about 80% or more round-trip energy efficiency: https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019#2 https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019#2 I quoted alternative because pumped-storage hydro accounts for 95% of grid energy storage in the world.
  - rstuart4133 7y ago
    And it's not like the world lacks places to put new pumped storage: https://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/#share=s-oDPMo1jDBBtwBNhD https://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/#share=s-oDPMo1jDBBtwB...
- BeeOnRope 7y ago
  25-35% efficiency? Pumped hydro is generally over 70% roundtrip.

omarhaneef 7y ago

Yes, we are seeing very low bids. $26-$30/MWh for solar doesn't even turn heads anymore. And battery costs are coming down too, and I think that curve looks more linear, but its coming down. One of the issues is that these costs are so capital intensive that the financing costs drive a lot of the price drop. With near zero or negative rates in so much of the world, I think its hard to tell what the real rates would be.

beat 7y ago
Capital costs are a legit concern. If something happens in international markets that causes interest rates to spike globally, it will set back the pace of conversion tremendously.
- Analemma_ 7y ago
  “Fortunately” we appear to be heading into a recession, so I doubt high interest rates are on the way any time soon.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Any way to leverage negative interest rates from developed countries into renewables? Very interested if someone knows how to facilitate such a bond issue.

beat 7y ago

I really hope so! I think we need to see wind/solar at half the cost of gas to really break gas as an energy source. And battery storage is quite expensive for now - hundreds of dollars per mwh. Of course, there are other interesting alternatives, too - thermal storage, gravity, compressed air, etc. But conversion losses will probably always limit those systems to 25-35% efficiency at best, plus much higher construction cost relative to solar panels.

luc4sdreyer 7y ago
> But conversion losses will probably always limit those systems to 25-35% efficiency at best Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but the "alternative" energy storage systems you mentioned have about 80% or more round-trip energy efficiency: https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019#2 https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019#2 I quoted alternative because pumped-storage hydro accounts for 95% of grid energy storage in the world.
- rstuart4133 7y ago
  And it's not like the world lacks places to put new pumped storage: https://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/#share=s-oDPMo1jDBBtwBNhD https://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/#share=s-oDPMo1jDBBtwB...
BeeOnRope 7y ago
25-35% efficiency? Pumped hydro is generally over 70% roundtrip.