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> "In any case, I think the sales on Verizon will be telling" Somehow I get the feeling that they won't. Armchair observers opining on the internet have never

by roc 16y ago

> "In any case, I think the sales on Verizon will be telling" Somehow I get the feeling that they won't. Armchair observers opining on the internet have never felt the need to rely on data before. They've long since drawn their conclusions and simply shop for justification; freely inventing some if acceptable evidence doesn't present itself. So no-one's mind is going to be changed, regardless. If you were bullish and it tanks, then Apple's 'premium' segment is assumed to have already moved to ATT. If you were bearish and it takes off, then it's the usual "marketing" and "cult" arguments again. The very marks of 'tank' versus 'incremental' versus 'wild success' will be subjectively twisted all to high hell. It won't matter if Apple sells 6M or 12M. Just watch the reactions when the inevitable avalanche of pre-orders and launch-day lines are reported. "macolyte" and "marketing circus" will get bandied about again, along with suggestions that once the early movement is cleared out then the real measuring of Apple's success on Verizon can begin...

kenjackson 16y ago
So no-one's mind is going to be changed, regardless. I think people's minds will be changed. Just the most outspoken, like Gruber or Siegler, dominate the conversation and their minds never change. For example, I thought the iPad would be a modest success and a disappointing product (after seeing the launch). Now, it is obviously a huge success. But more importantly I think it fundamentally changed how we think about computing devices -- in a good way. of course, I don't have a great pulpit to speak from, nor do I like to blather on about how wrong I was, but nevertheless minds do get changed... even if quietly.
- TetOn 16y ago
  Gruber has made definite predictions based on Verizon's ability to move iPhones (one example among others): http://daringfireball.net/linked/2010/12/09/verizon-iphone http://daringfireball.net/linked/2010/12/09/verizon-iphone In that case, either they sell a million on day one or they don't (this presumes that we are ever told or can divine a semi-reliable sales estimate). His opinion doesn't enter into it. I'd say part of the reason he is and remains popular is that he pretty consistently tries to present the data or line of reasoning behind the opinion, and on occasion adjusts to fit the new data...and but says so when it happens.

by roc 16y ago

kenjackson 16y ago

So no-one's mind is going to be changed, regardless. I think people's minds will be changed. Just the most outspoken, like Gruber or Siegler, dominate the conversation and their minds never change. For example, I thought the iPad would be a modest success and a disappointing product (after seeing the launch). Now, it is obviously a huge success. But more importantly I think it fundamentally changed how we think about computing devices -- in a good way. of course, I don't have a great pulpit to speak from, nor do I like to blather on about how wrong I was, but nevertheless minds do get changed... even if quietly.

TetOn 16y ago
Gruber has made definite predictions based on Verizon's ability to move iPhones (one example among others): http://daringfireball.net/linked/2010/12/09/verizon-iphone http://daringfireball.net/linked/2010/12/09/verizon-iphone In that case, either they sell a million on day one or they don't (this presumes that we are ever told or can divine a semi-reliable sales estimate). His opinion doesn't enter into it. I'd say part of the reason he is and remains popular is that he pretty consistently tries to present the data or line of reasoning behind the opinion, and on occasion adjusts to fit the new data...and but says so when it happens.