7 ms·

If an emergency is a circumstance in which ongoing realities are emergent and aren't predictable based on previous experience or world-models, this is a phenome

If an emergency is a circumstance in which ongoing realities are emergent and aren't predictable based on previous experience or world-models, this is a phenomenal example of those dynamics I like this characterization somewhat, though I think there needs to be a [perceived danger] variable not accounted for. Perhaps: An emergency is a circumstance in which realities are perceived as existentially dangerous and aren't predictable based on previous experience or world-models Especially acute is the widespread confusion part. That fits well with my personal (more than I'd like) experiences with true existential emergencies.

dredmorbius 7y ago
The definition's a working one, and subject to modification, but I feel it's a good start. I've been collecting / compiling / commenting on similar veins for a while. There's Robert Ewashuck's paging philosophy (Google SRE): Pages [alerts] should be urgent, important, actionable, and real. They should represent either ongoing or imminent problems with your service. Err on the side of removing noisy alerts – over-monitoring is a harder problem to solve than under-monitoring.... (The list continues.) https://docs.google.com/document/d/199PqyG3UsyXlwieHaqbGiWVa8eMWi8zzAn0YfcApr8Q/mobilebasic?pli=1#heading=h.fs3knmjt7fjy https://docs.google.com/document/d/199PqyG3UsyXlwieHaqbGiWVa... I've come up with a hierarchy of failures (or alternatively: success kill chain) in problem resolution, starting with "being aware there's a problem": https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2fsr0g/hierarchy_of_failures_in_problem_resolution/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2fsr0g/hierarc... There's the Japanese awareness and response following the bombing of Hiroshima. Short version: the first indication of the 9:15 am attack was a cessation of all communications. Military command wasn't aware of the scope of damage until an overflight was arranged, in early afternoon, and didn't know the actual cause until told by the US the next day. https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wf9yc/on_disasters_wwii_japanese_leadership_wasnt_aware/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wf9yc/on_disa... The missile strike on the HMS Sheffield during the Falklands War played out similarly: https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2ab25z/on_disasters_the_hms_sheffield_exocet_attack_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2ab25z/on_disa... In many large-scale natural disasters, an ominous sign is no reports, especially from outlying areas. Initial responses to disasters often follow early stages of the Kubler-Ross stages of grief model: obliviousness, denial, sometimes anger. My sense is that grief is another form of major world-model collapse: that some reality that has been internalised and is often a sense of identity is shown to be wrong or inoperative. Again: it's not that catastrophes and disasters are similar to grief, it's that grief responses are a response to catastrophes and disasters. And finally, a quote from a ... modern Cupertino ... mystic, Adyashanti: Make no mistake about it -- enlightenment is a destructive process. It has nothing to do with becoming better or becoming happier. Enlightenment is the crumbling away of untruth. It's seeing through the facade of pretense. It's the complete eradication of everything we imagined to be true. Source: https://books.google.com/books?id=IZ5LECwss0AC&pg=PT126&dq="enlightenment+is+a+destructive+process."&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjE-5OPx8XkAhVBM6wKHbnHC34QuwUIUzAG#v=onepage&q="enlightenment%20is%20a%20destructive%20process."&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=IZ5LECwss0AC&pg=PT126&dq="... There's a lot of meat in that, I think.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  This is one of the reasons why HAM radio bands should be sacrosanct. You never really know what nature will throw at you next, we think we have it all figured out and then boom, something happens that we have no record of in living memory. HAMs are typically well prepared for being back in the air first thing and are a very useful source of information from regions that have just suffered a disaster of some sorts.
- Roritharr 7y ago
  I heard on Hardcore History a similar notion, that the fall of empires often was indicated by the absence of news from the outer regions. It just became quiet, and that quiet kept on creeping in. Terrifying thought in todays terms, imagine we simply stopped receiving news out of Hong Kong and spreading out from there. People on WhatsApp/Instagram there would stop responding. News agencies would wait for their updates and receive none... Now I want to read that book.
  - lostlogin 7y ago
    Me too. Keep writing.
c22 7y ago
I agree, otherwise the OP is just describing Burning Man.
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  I'd argue that BM shifts the norm, but then tends to stop emerging past a point. In emergencies, the situation just keeps evolving. Well past normal or safe limits.
- throwaway091019 7y ago
  Interesting comparison. Burning Man is managed as an ongoing emergency, and has a 24/7 multi-disciplinary team responding to and triaging incidents as they arise. Essentially Burning Man is a disaster that's been intentionally paused just before a tragedy. It's kept at that point by some very coordinated and talented people.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    Well, it's a burning man after all, not a burnt man :). Jokes aside, I like this characterization. Makes me think of other cases where a system is designed to be unstable and is then being carefully balanced at the edge of failure; see e.g. modern fighter jets.

dredmorbius 7y ago

The definition's a working one, and subject to modification, but I feel it's a good start. I've been collecting / compiling / commenting on similar veins for a while. There's Robert Ewashuck's paging philosophy (Google SRE): Pages [alerts] should be urgent, important, actionable, and real. They should represent either ongoing or imminent problems with your service. Err on the side of removing noisy alerts – over-monitoring is a harder problem to solve than under-monitoring.... (The list continues.) https://docs.google.com/document/d/199PqyG3UsyXlwieHaqbGiWVa8eMWi8zzAn0YfcApr8Q/mobilebasic?pli=1#heading=h.fs3knmjt7fjy https://docs.google.com/document/d/199PqyG3UsyXlwieHaqbGiWVa... I've come up with a hierarchy of failures (or alternatively: success kill chain) in problem resolution, starting with "being aware there's a problem": https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2fsr0g/hierarchy_of_failures_in_problem_resolution/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2fsr0g/hierarc... There's the Japanese awareness and response following the bombing of Hiroshima. Short version: the first indication of the 9:15 am attack was a cessation of all communications. Military command wasn't aware of the scope of damage until an overflight was arranged, in early afternoon, and didn't know the actual cause until told by the US the next day. https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wf9yc/on_disasters_wwii_japanese_leadership_wasnt_aware/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wf9yc/on_disa... The missile strike on the HMS Sheffield during the Falklands War played out similarly: https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2ab25z/on_disasters_the_hms_sheffield_exocet_attack_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2ab25z/on_disa... In many large-scale natural disasters, an ominous sign is no reports, especially from outlying areas. Initial responses to disasters often follow early stages of the Kubler-Ross stages of grief model: obliviousness, denial, sometimes anger. My sense is that grief is another form of major world-model collapse: that some reality that has been internalised and is often a sense of identity is shown to be wrong or inoperative. Again: it's not that catastrophes and disasters are similar to grief, it's that grief responses are a response to catastrophes and disasters. And finally, a quote from a ... modern Cupertino ... mystic, Adyashanti: Make no mistake about it -- enlightenment is a destructive process. It has nothing to do with becoming better or becoming happier. Enlightenment is the crumbling away of untruth. It's seeing through the facade of pretense. It's the complete eradication of everything we imagined to be true. Source: https://books.google.com/books?id=IZ5LECwss0AC&pg=PT126&dq="enlightenment+is+a+destructive+process."&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjE-5OPx8XkAhVBM6wKHbnHC34QuwUIUzAG#v=onepage&q="enlightenment%20is%20a%20destructive%20process."&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=IZ5LECwss0AC&pg=PT126&dq="... There's a lot of meat in that, I think.

jacquesm 7y ago
This is one of the reasons why HAM radio bands should be sacrosanct. You never really know what nature will throw at you next, we think we have it all figured out and then boom, something happens that we have no record of in living memory. HAMs are typically well prepared for being back in the air first thing and are a very useful source of information from regions that have just suffered a disaster of some sorts.
Roritharr 7y ago
I heard on Hardcore History a similar notion, that the fall of empires often was indicated by the absence of news from the outer regions. It just became quiet, and that quiet kept on creeping in. Terrifying thought in todays terms, imagine we simply stopped receiving news out of Hong Kong and spreading out from there. People on WhatsApp/Instagram there would stop responding. News agencies would wait for their updates and receive none... Now I want to read that book.
- lostlogin 7y ago
  Me too. Keep writing.

c22 7y ago

I agree, otherwise the OP is just describing Burning Man.

dredmorbius 7y ago
I'd argue that BM shifts the norm, but then tends to stop emerging past a point. In emergencies, the situation just keeps evolving. Well past normal or safe limits.
throwaway091019 7y ago
Interesting comparison. Burning Man is managed as an ongoing emergency, and has a 24/7 multi-disciplinary team responding to and triaging incidents as they arise. Essentially Burning Man is a disaster that's been intentionally paused just before a tragedy. It's kept at that point by some very coordinated and talented people.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  Well, it's a burning man after all, not a burnt man :). Jokes aside, I like this characterization. Makes me think of other cases where a system is designed to be unstable and is then being carefully balanced at the edge of failure; see e.g. modern fighter jets.