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Climate change is nothing to sneer at but it seems like it's now acceptable to make dubious claims about weather disasters and link every single one to climate

Climate change is nothing to sneer at but it seems like it's now acceptable to make dubious claims about weather disasters and link every single one to climate change in some fashion. When really the picture is more nuanced; there's not necessarily any solid proof beyond cost of rebuilding that link recent hurricanes to climate change. Perhaps another example of primarily-political "junk" climate science is the 12-year figure. All these claims with no proof actually hurt the movement to remedy the very real, yet long-term issue facing us. When discussing climate change with the average person, I get strong vibes of post-9/11 US, the idea that there is now a problem so incredibly urgent that any justification for extreme and illiberal policy is suddenly acceptable. Reddit now casually bandies about the idea of raiding Brazil to preserve its forest, in a rather disappointing mirror-image of early-2000s neoconservatism. In the face of fear we seem lose our values as Americans incredibly quickly.

deleted 7y ago
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Scarblac 7y ago
Any extreme and illiberal policy is now acceptable - - except for just burning less fossil fuel.
kickopotomus 7y ago
I am not sure about what other weather disasters you are referring to but hurricanes in particular are closely tied to ocean temperatures. Warmer water increases both the formation rate and severity of hurricanes[1][2]. As the oceans get warmer, we should expect longer hurricane seasons more intense storms as a result. [1]: https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/hurricanes/en/ https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/hurricanes/en/ [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream
- wcunning 7y ago
  But the data are too noisy to draw the conclusion that we are already observing that predicted effect with certainty. It's not that that hypothesis is unreasonable, in fact my non-climatologist understanding is that it's very likely true. The question is what is the effect size for the recorded temperature increase to date, and what I've read says that it's both been up and down enough that we're not sure yet [0]. This is in contrast to the myriad news stories that state that we're losing billions of dollars per year due to global warming caused hurricanes. They do not provide nuance, but rather use terms that outright state causal links and major consequences. Also, before you say that Reason is right wing (sorta granted, though less so these days as libertarians move out of coalition with the right), Ron Bailey is not a climate change denier. Read some of his other coverage before you slam the source. [0] https://reason.com/2019/01/17/hurricane-losses/ https://reason.com/2019/01/17/hurricane-losses/

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

Scarblac 7y ago

Any extreme and illiberal policy is now acceptable - - except for just burning less fossil fuel.

kickopotomus 7y ago

I am not sure about what other weather disasters you are referring to but hurricanes in particular are closely tied to ocean temperatures. Warmer water increases both the formation rate and severity of hurricanes[1][2]. As the oceans get warmer, we should expect longer hurricane seasons more intense storms as a result. [1]: https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/hurricanes/en/ https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/hurricanes/en/ [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream

wcunning 7y ago
But the data are too noisy to draw the conclusion that we are already observing that predicted effect with certainty. It's not that that hypothesis is unreasonable, in fact my non-climatologist understanding is that it's very likely true. The question is what is the effect size for the recorded temperature increase to date, and what I've read says that it's both been up and down enough that we're not sure yet [0]. This is in contrast to the myriad news stories that state that we're losing billions of dollars per year due to global warming caused hurricanes. They do not provide nuance, but rather use terms that outright state causal links and major consequences. Also, before you say that Reason is right wing (sorta granted, though less so these days as libertarians move out of coalition with the right), Ron Bailey is not a climate change denier. Read some of his other coverage before you slam the source. [0] https://reason.com/2019/01/17/hurricane-losses/ https://reason.com/2019/01/17/hurricane-losses/