It seems that we don't know how likely life is to develop given early Earth conditions. If that has a very low chance to happen then maybe panspermia is more li

It seems that we don't know how likely life is to develop given early Earth conditions. If that has a very low chance to happen then maybe panspermia is more likely. If it turns out to likely happen given a few million years and good conditions maybe panspermia is less likely. It seems to me we know almost nothing about the likelihood of either option, so it's hard to declare that one should be the default.