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It's depressing looking at the other EVs on that list. Where's my electric BMW 3 series? Over the last decade people have been quite rightly pointing out that

It's depressing looking at the other EVs on that list. Where's my electric BMW 3 series? Over the last decade people have been quite rightly pointing out that Tesla are in trouble because sticking some batteries and electric engines into a car isn't actually crazy difficult and all Tesla's production problems will kill it in competition with real car manufacturers. Yet somehow that just hasn't happened at all. The people who talked about the inability of large incumbents to react were dead right. I'm still bearish on Tesla - I think they've pumped their share price with false claims about self-driving, but they have really dominated electric vehicles.

kayoone 7y ago
That is true, albeit it's slowly changing. I recently drove the VW eGolf and it was a really nice experience. I also drove the Model 3 which has better range and is faster, but also more expensive. I prefer the interior quality of the Golf though. There are also alternatives from the Japanese companies. I think the reason is rather the immense popularity and hype around Tesla that makes it the number one choice for most people that have money and want an EV.
- dzhiurgis 7y ago
  I think Tesla needs even cheaper/smaller model. 3 is pretty big and expensive for majority of Europeans, especially with little incentives.
  - findthewords 7y ago
    Do they, though? Won't that problem fix itself with ever decreasing battery costs and a European manufacturing plant? A 35k € base model 3 would be a tremendous improvement.
spiderfarmer 7y ago
Next year will be a big year for EV where loads of new electric models will be available in the EU. Tesla will probably still dominate, I think they’ll mostly take market share from gasoline models.
raphaelj 7y ago
I'm actually thinking the opposite. Tesla strategy was to put the first desirable electrical car on the market, which they succeed at doing. The strategy of most traditional manufacturers is very different. They want to make the most profitable car. And it seems like no EV will be as profitable as ICE vehicles until batteries will be more or less price competitive with ICE. I'm pretty sure that their target is to release an EV when batteries will be so cheap that it wouldn't make sense to buy an ICE car anymore. And this is not yet the case, as it will most probably happen in the early 2020s. Before that time, any manufactured EV has a pretty high opportunity cost compared to an ICE car. e.g. BMW still makes a such high margin (almost 10%) on ICE cars that selling unprofitable EV just does not make sense from a business standpoint.
- Nickste 7y ago
  The model 3 is estimated to have a 30% gross margin [1]. So it seems incorrect to say that the traditional manufacturers are waiting for battery prices to fall, as it’s clearly possible to build a high margin EV today. [1] https://jalopnik.com/engineering-firm-that-said-tesla-model-3-quality-was-li-1827632866 https://jalopnik.com/engineering-firm-that-said-tesla-model-...
  - raphaelj 7y ago
    It's profitable is you remove management, R&D, supercharger and sales costs. Which is like saying that Uber is profitable if it's not for driver compensations.
    - eaenki 7y ago
      no that's non sense. R&D is a huge fixed upfront cost while Uber's drivers are an ongoing cost that scales linearly. Just like Intel (huge upfront cost to design chips) VS Victoria's Secret , the former has unlimited upside, the latter doesn't and cost scales linearly.
      - Barrin92 7y ago
edejong 7y ago
The established car manufacturers are too highly optimized for their specific suppliers. Over many decades an internal culture appears within these companies that immunizes against heavy risks. This is done by (unconsciously) selecting for certain personality traits in upper management and by forming certain specific ties to the first and secondary surroundings of the company. In short: companies petrify around local optima given time.
alexandros 7y ago
"quite rightly", "sticking some batteries"... Its fascinating that you do realize that the people who disagree with you have been right, and yet you're not updating your model. Look up Sandy Munro, a car guy's car guy, talking about his teardown of the model 3[1], or even just focus on his comment about the superbottle, and perhaps you'll get a better sense of why nobody has matched the 2012 Model S yet, nevermind the 2019 one. [1]: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/06/auto-industry-expert-in-lean-design-sandy-munro-gushes-over-tesla-in-new-video/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/06/auto-industry-expert-in...
- close04 7y ago
  You have to consider that if a car becomes attractive only after a country removes the 25% VAT on it and then taxes competing products (ICE) up to 100% then the business model of the classic manufacturers still very much makes sense everywhere else in the world where this isn’t the case. So depending on how you pick and choose the data you want to consider you can paint absolutely any picture you want. What’s your personal take on why people would go for other new cars that don’t match even a 7 year old model but cost the same(ish)?
- baybal2 7y ago
  I think he is just too sensational. Is this guy doing actual engineering? From whomever I talked, I hear the same: Tesla's engineering leaves mixed impressions. One can say that the range is definitely good - Tesla scores very high in getting most range out of kw/h. But things like poor metalworking would be a recall worthy flaw for every other automaker. For the interior, Model S feels way too American. Compare its interior and an actual luxury car, like a maxed out Benz S600. Its engineering in overall is nothing groundbreaking, and saying that EVs are way more straightforward to engineer is true. Telsa just stands out as one EV maker that didn't make some "showstopper" omissions, unlike almost every other competitor. Chinese and Japanese EVs are dead on arrival in US because most of them are really small for Americans... If an American buys an expensive car, it will most likely be a BIG car. Poor driveabiliy chases other competitors. There are simply not so many makers with experience making 2.5t+ full sized sedans, nor compact car makers which can make a compact car suspension not to croak under 1.7t+ curb weight. NIO for examples despite making a quite marketable SUV for China was delayed launch for 2 years because their first attempt at making SUV got so much bad reviews from test drivers, that they had to near completely redesign the body and suspension twice. Reportedly, after finding out that live axle is a completely inadequate for a 2t+ vehicle, and that unibody design can't handle the weight of a battery pack. Leaf had both tiny battery, poor chemistry, and poor thermals. Bolt - all bad things you normally expect from a US car maker other than Ford. And so on.
jillesvangurp 7y ago
I'm actually bullish on Tesla because what I see is a couple of very high risk investments actually starting to deliver on their promises against what 'sane' investors have been saying was not possible. You might actually consider Tesla's stock undervalued if you believe that Tesla still has a few high risk investments left that are about to start paying off. IMHO their investments in solar are problematic but also not without merit if they manage to turn this around. It's a huge growing market and they seem to have some interesting products and ideas to reduce cost. Their acquisition of Maxwell is looking like it might give them another competitive edge with batteries with a feasible path to 400g/kwh and beyond. IMHO that's is going to give them a huge edge for the next decade where most of their competitors do not have access to in house battery designs or production capacity. They have a giga factory coming online soon (China) to address supply issues. Model y, the truck, and pickup truck coming to the market soonish and are already generating plenty of hype. Then there's the powerwall situation and the notion that lots of energy companies are discovering that they love owning batteries. Even the self driving car thing might still work out. I hear people claiming that this is impossible. But I'm actually more and more convinced that self driving cars are happening sooner rather than later. Maybe it's not going to be all that it is hyped up to be right away but even level 4 autonomy is going to be pretty nice. All these things are sucking up a lot of investment money and it is obviously a risky investment. But their track record of eventually delivering working stuff is not completely horrible.
dahfizz 7y ago
I think people really underestimate the engineering and manufacturing that goes into an electric car. Tesla got the jump, and now they're ahead of the competition. For example, the gigfactory is the world largest car battery manufacturer by a factor of 2. That's a massive and slow investment any competitor needs to make to sell EVs in volume. And making an EV is not trivial. Let's compare the Tesla model 3 and Nissan leaf 2, which are in the same price range: - Tesla has better range. - Tesla is the faster car. - Tesla has much faster charging. None of these things are revolutionary, but taken together it's clear to the consumer that Tesla is further ahead than the competition. I'm not going to buy a slower, less efficient car for the same amount of money. Edit: formatting
- lazyjones 7y ago
  Also: - Tesla has a working fast charging infrastructure - Tesla has the better AP
  - et2o 7y ago
    Also, the Model 3 is a desirable, attractive car and something of a status symbol. The Nissan Leaf 2 looks like an appliance in comparison.
Dumblydorr 7y ago
In the same comment you say you're bearish and yet admit they have a massive EV tech lead over BMW and the ICE feet draggers. The reality is those companies make money off fossil fuel drivetrains, and Tesla makes money off battery drivetrains, so even if FSD doesn't deliver Tesla simply continues to make way more efficient cars with a much better charging network.
puranjay 7y ago
Anyone who says that an electric car is just some batteries and an electric engine should read about the massive, complicated supply chains necessary to build cars at scale. Throw in regulations and taxation issues - which are different in virtually every market - and you have a huge operational nightmare. It's one thing to build a car in your garage by sourcing parts from around the world, and another to build 1M cars in a giant factory
- d0mine 7y ago
  If it were about supply chains, Apple would do it.
  - et2o 7y ago
    Cars are hugely complex, regulated, expensive, relatively low-margin products. Many parts are outsourced to subcontractor firms. So a lot of manufacturer success actually does come to supply chain management.
  - puranjay 7y ago
    Your average iPhone uses nowhere near as many parts and partners as even a mid-range car. Plus, the iPhone doesn't have to go through rigorous crash testing, pass environmental regulations, and deal with entrenched lobbies. The automobile industry is over a hundred years old. There are deeply entrenched players, unions, etc. that Apple would never want to deal with. Besides, profit margins on cars tend to be crappy, at least for anything with any mass appeal
  - hndamien 7y ago
    If the rumours are true Apple tried.
kilroy123 7y ago
I was talking to a big wig at Ford the other day, without too much detail, he works on their EV program. He admitted they are behind and Tesla is actually way ahead of the competition in many areas. It _is_ difficult to put a battery and electric engines in a car and they've run into difficulties. Though it sounds like they're on their way to putting out a decent EV, and he thinks they and others will eventually catch up. He also thinks Telsa will ultimately be killed by Chinese battery manufactures, which I thought was interesting.
- jdhn 7y ago
  Did he say what areas Tesla was ahead in?
- toomuchequate 7y ago
  Ford is behind. GM and Nissan are not.

kayoone 7y ago

That is true, albeit it's slowly changing. I recently drove the VW eGolf and it was a really nice experience. I also drove the Model 3 which has better range and is faster, but also more expensive. I prefer the interior quality of the Golf though. There are also alternatives from the Japanese companies. I think the reason is rather the immense popularity and hype around Tesla that makes it the number one choice for most people that have money and want an EV.

dzhiurgis 7y ago
I think Tesla needs even cheaper/smaller model. 3 is pretty big and expensive for majority of Europeans, especially with little incentives.
- findthewords 7y ago
  Do they, though? Won't that problem fix itself with ever decreasing battery costs and a European manufacturing plant? A 35k € base model 3 would be a tremendous improvement.

spiderfarmer 7y ago

Next year will be a big year for EV where loads of new electric models will be available in the EU. Tesla will probably still dominate, I think they’ll mostly take market share from gasoline models.

raphaelj 7y ago

I'm actually thinking the opposite. Tesla strategy was to put the first desirable electrical car on the market, which they succeed at doing. The strategy of most traditional manufacturers is very different. They want to make the most profitable car. And it seems like no EV will be as profitable as ICE vehicles until batteries will be more or less price competitive with ICE. I'm pretty sure that their target is to release an EV when batteries will be so cheap that it wouldn't make sense to buy an ICE car anymore. And this is not yet the case, as it will most probably happen in the early 2020s. Before that time, any manufactured EV has a pretty high opportunity cost compared to an ICE car. e.g. BMW still makes a such high margin (almost 10%) on ICE cars that selling unprofitable EV just does not make sense from a business standpoint.

Nickste 7y ago
The model 3 is estimated to have a 30% gross margin [1]. So it seems incorrect to say that the traditional manufacturers are waiting for battery prices to fall, as it’s clearly possible to build a high margin EV today. [1] https://jalopnik.com/engineering-firm-that-said-tesla-model-3-quality-was-li-1827632866 https://jalopnik.com/engineering-firm-that-said-tesla-model-...
- raphaelj 7y ago
  It's profitable is you remove management, R&D, supercharger and sales costs. Which is like saying that Uber is profitable if it's not for driver compensations.
  - eaenki 7y ago
    no that's non sense. R&D is a huge fixed upfront cost while Uber's drivers are an ongoing cost that scales linearly. Just like Intel (huge upfront cost to design chips) VS Victoria's Secret , the former has unlimited upside, the latter doesn't and cost scales linearly.
    - Barrin92 7y ago

edejong 7y ago

The established car manufacturers are too highly optimized for their specific suppliers. Over many decades an internal culture appears within these companies that immunizes against heavy risks. This is done by (unconsciously) selecting for certain personality traits in upper management and by forming certain specific ties to the first and secondary surroundings of the company. In short: companies petrify around local optima given time.

alexandros 7y ago

"quite rightly", "sticking some batteries"... Its fascinating that you do realize that the people who disagree with you have been right, and yet you're not updating your model. Look up Sandy Munro, a car guy's car guy, talking about his teardown of the model 3[1], or even just focus on his comment about the superbottle, and perhaps you'll get a better sense of why nobody has matched the 2012 Model S yet, nevermind the 2019 one. [1]: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/06/auto-industry-expert-in-lean-design-sandy-munro-gushes-over-tesla-in-new-video/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/06/auto-industry-expert-in...

close04 7y ago
You have to consider that if a car becomes attractive only after a country removes the 25% VAT on it and then taxes competing products (ICE) up to 100% then the business model of the classic manufacturers still very much makes sense everywhere else in the world where this isn’t the case. So depending on how you pick and choose the data you want to consider you can paint absolutely any picture you want. What’s your personal take on why people would go for other new cars that don’t match even a 7 year old model but cost the same(ish)?
baybal2 7y ago
I think he is just too sensational. Is this guy doing actual engineering? From whomever I talked, I hear the same: Tesla's engineering leaves mixed impressions. One can say that the range is definitely good - Tesla scores very high in getting most range out of kw/h. But things like poor metalworking would be a recall worthy flaw for every other automaker. For the interior, Model S feels way too American. Compare its interior and an actual luxury car, like a maxed out Benz S600. Its engineering in overall is nothing groundbreaking, and saying that EVs are way more straightforward to engineer is true. Telsa just stands out as one EV maker that didn't make some "showstopper" omissions, unlike almost every other competitor. Chinese and Japanese EVs are dead on arrival in US because most of them are really small for Americans... If an American buys an expensive car, it will most likely be a BIG car. Poor driveabiliy chases other competitors. There are simply not so many makers with experience making 2.5t+ full sized sedans, nor compact car makers which can make a compact car suspension not to croak under 1.7t+ curb weight. NIO for examples despite making a quite marketable SUV for China was delayed launch for 2 years because their first attempt at making SUV got so much bad reviews from test drivers, that they had to near completely redesign the body and suspension twice. Reportedly, after finding out that live axle is a completely inadequate for a 2t+ vehicle, and that unibody design can't handle the weight of a battery pack. Leaf had both tiny battery, poor chemistry, and poor thermals. Bolt - all bad things you normally expect from a US car maker other than Ford. And so on.

jillesvangurp 7y ago

I'm actually bullish on Tesla because what I see is a couple of very high risk investments actually starting to deliver on their promises against what 'sane' investors have been saying was not possible. You might actually consider Tesla's stock undervalued if you believe that Tesla still has a few high risk investments left that are about to start paying off. IMHO their investments in solar are problematic but also not without merit if they manage to turn this around. It's a huge growing market and they seem to have some interesting products and ideas to reduce cost. Their acquisition of Maxwell is looking like it might give them another competitive edge with batteries with a feasible path to 400g/kwh and beyond. IMHO that's is going to give them a huge edge for the next decade where most of their competitors do not have access to in house battery designs or production capacity. They have a giga factory coming online soon (China) to address supply issues. Model y, the truck, and pickup truck coming to the market soonish and are already generating plenty of hype. Then there's the powerwall situation and the notion that lots of energy companies are discovering that they love owning batteries. Even the self driving car thing might still work out. I hear people claiming that this is impossible. But I'm actually more and more convinced that self driving cars are happening sooner rather than later. Maybe it's not going to be all that it is hyped up to be right away but even level 4 autonomy is going to be pretty nice. All these things are sucking up a lot of investment money and it is obviously a risky investment. But their track record of eventually delivering working stuff is not completely horrible.

dahfizz 7y ago

I think people really underestimate the engineering and manufacturing that goes into an electric car. Tesla got the jump, and now they're ahead of the competition. For example, the gigfactory is the world largest car battery manufacturer by a factor of 2. That's a massive and slow investment any competitor needs to make to sell EVs in volume. And making an EV is not trivial. Let's compare the Tesla model 3 and Nissan leaf 2, which are in the same price range: - Tesla has better range. - Tesla is the faster car. - Tesla has much faster charging. None of these things are revolutionary, but taken together it's clear to the consumer that Tesla is further ahead than the competition. I'm not going to buy a slower, less efficient car for the same amount of money. Edit: formatting

lazyjones 7y ago
Also: - Tesla has a working fast charging infrastructure - Tesla has the better AP
- et2o 7y ago
  Also, the Model 3 is a desirable, attractive car and something of a status symbol. The Nissan Leaf 2 looks like an appliance in comparison.

Dumblydorr 7y ago

In the same comment you say you're bearish and yet admit they have a massive EV tech lead over BMW and the ICE feet draggers. The reality is those companies make money off fossil fuel drivetrains, and Tesla makes money off battery drivetrains, so even if FSD doesn't deliver Tesla simply continues to make way more efficient cars with a much better charging network.

puranjay 7y ago

Anyone who says that an electric car is just some batteries and an electric engine should read about the massive, complicated supply chains necessary to build cars at scale. Throw in regulations and taxation issues - which are different in virtually every market - and you have a huge operational nightmare. It's one thing to build a car in your garage by sourcing parts from around the world, and another to build 1M cars in a giant factory

d0mine 7y ago
If it were about supply chains, Apple would do it.
- et2o 7y ago
  Cars are hugely complex, regulated, expensive, relatively low-margin products. Many parts are outsourced to subcontractor firms. So a lot of manufacturer success actually does come to supply chain management.
- puranjay 7y ago
  Your average iPhone uses nowhere near as many parts and partners as even a mid-range car. Plus, the iPhone doesn't have to go through rigorous crash testing, pass environmental regulations, and deal with entrenched lobbies. The automobile industry is over a hundred years old. There are deeply entrenched players, unions, etc. that Apple would never want to deal with. Besides, profit margins on cars tend to be crappy, at least for anything with any mass appeal
- hndamien 7y ago
  If the rumours are true Apple tried.

kilroy123 7y ago

I was talking to a big wig at Ford the other day, without too much detail, he works on their EV program. He admitted they are behind and Tesla is actually way ahead of the competition in many areas. It _is_ difficult to put a battery and electric engines in a car and they've run into difficulties. Though it sounds like they're on their way to putting out a decent EV, and he thinks they and others will eventually catch up. He also thinks Telsa will ultimately be killed by Chinese battery manufactures, which I thought was interesting.

jdhn 7y ago
Did he say what areas Tesla was ahead in?
toomuchequate 7y ago
Ford is behind. GM and Nissan are not.