People naively apply historical "patterns" like this, why? History doesn't always repeat itself. It used to be that the most similar countries would have wars w

People naively apply historical "patterns" like this, why? History doesn't always repeat itself. It used to be that the most similar countries would have wars with each other, like England and France for hundreds of years. Now it's the opposite. Territories used to rebel against governments, today the US has successfully managed numerous territories for over a hundred years. We largely don't have governments based on religion. The world has had paradigm shifts that make large scale political events of the past unlikely to happen again.