I think this is part of the problem, but the more fundamental issue is that people are extremely bad about probabilistic reasoning. Even if we said "3% probabil

I think this is part of the problem, but the more fundamental issue is that people are extremely bad about probabilistic reasoning. Even if we said "3% probability we're just seeing a pattern by accident" most people unconsciously round this down to zero. People that work with computers often are slightly better about reasoning about probabilities because they often deal with high frequency events. A 1% error rate across 10 million events a day leads to 100,000 errors. If those events are transactions, payments, file uploads etc, a 1% chance starts to look very common. But even computer people are not immune to incorrectly reasoning about probabilities. I suspect there is some fundamental limitation at the cognitive level.