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There's no shortage of demands on your time. There's absolutely a shortage of true opportunities. This is because if someone manages to convince you that spendi

There's no shortage of demands on your time. There's absolutely a shortage of true opportunities. This is because if someone manages to convince you that spending your time on their thing, then they benefit. So everyone packages their demands as opportunities.

JohnFen 7y ago
I've yet to see a shortage of opportunities. However, I agree with you that if someone is coming to you with something that they're presenting as an opportunity, it most likely isn't. Actual opportunities rarely come that way.
- vinceguidry 7y ago
  Ok, now I get to trot out my framework for determining whether something is an opportunity or not. There are three basic ways to get ahead, a) to climb a ladder up a mountain, b) to build a ladder up a mountain that already exists, c) or to build a mountain. Only the first qualifies as an opportunity. Most 'opportunities' are really just directions to places on mountains to build ladders, or places where no mountain exists. Access to real ladders to ascend real mountains is heavily guarded and rare. Finding places to build ladders is probably what you're thinking of as an opportunity, but I would not consider that opportunity. If I had few million bucks in the bank to enter a market with, then I can consider building ladders a real opportunity.
  - JohnFen 7y ago
    In my view, an opportunity (in a business sense) is when you find a need people have that isn't being adequately fulfilled. You capitalize on the opportunity by fulfilling it. 99% of the time, you don't need a few millions to do this. I'm not talking about "getting ahead" in the sense that you seem to be. That's a different, and much more complicated, topic.
    - vinceguidry 7y ago
      To enter a market you need to build a firm and develop a product. This requires non-trivial time and resources and is risky. Without the resources you can only try it a few times in a lifetime. With the resources, you can keep trying until you find success. It's building a ladder up a mountain that already exists.
      - JohnFen 7y ago
        > This requires non-trivial time and resources and is risky. Absolutely true. You need to take a risk to take advantage of an opportunity. > Without the resources you can only try it a few times in a lifetime. If you have time and determination, you really do have all the resources that are necessary (unless you're wanting a get-rich-quick type of thing, of course). There's nothing that limits you to a few times in a lifetime.
        vinceguidry 7y ago
        Sure, with time and determination, you can build a ladder up a mountain. But one path is as good as another if that's the case. All the 'opportunities' you're ignoring aren't opportunities, they're noise A real opportunity compels you to take advantage of it, you really are losing something if you don't follow it up. What's limiting you to a few tries to a lifetime is time. It takes 5-10 years to properly validate a business model, you can only do that so many times. And you might not be in the same place after an attempt that you were before, meaning it might take even more time.
        JohnFen 7y ago
        I think that we may be defining "opportunity" differently. It sounds like you're defining it more like a "windfall". To me, an opportunity is when you see a path to enhancing your success. It is not automatically success, and does not imply that no effort is required on your part. An opportunity is when you find a way of advancing your goals that has a reasonably good chance of success. > It takes 5-10 years to properly validate a business model, Except that it doesn't. And you should never go into business with a business model that is so fixed that the only thing you can do is to validate it or not. Your business model is something that you are continually adjusting (sometimes radically) as you learn more about what you're doing or as your situation changes.
  - mruts 7y ago
    I think what you’re talking about is arbitrage: finding $20 bucks on the ground is an opportunity, but building a whole new currency isn’t. I’m not sure it’s that simple, but it’s certainly an interesting idea.

JohnFen 7y ago

I've yet to see a shortage of opportunities. However, I agree with you that if someone is coming to you with something that they're presenting as an opportunity, it most likely isn't. Actual opportunities rarely come that way.

vinceguidry 7y ago
Ok, now I get to trot out my framework for determining whether something is an opportunity or not. There are three basic ways to get ahead, a) to climb a ladder up a mountain, b) to build a ladder up a mountain that already exists, c) or to build a mountain. Only the first qualifies as an opportunity. Most 'opportunities' are really just directions to places on mountains to build ladders, or places where no mountain exists. Access to real ladders to ascend real mountains is heavily guarded and rare. Finding places to build ladders is probably what you're thinking of as an opportunity, but I would not consider that opportunity. If I had few million bucks in the bank to enter a market with, then I can consider building ladders a real opportunity.
- JohnFen 7y ago
  In my view, an opportunity (in a business sense) is when you find a need people have that isn't being adequately fulfilled. You capitalize on the opportunity by fulfilling it. 99% of the time, you don't need a few millions to do this. I'm not talking about "getting ahead" in the sense that you seem to be. That's a different, and much more complicated, topic.
  - vinceguidry 7y ago
    To enter a market you need to build a firm and develop a product. This requires non-trivial time and resources and is risky. Without the resources you can only try it a few times in a lifetime. With the resources, you can keep trying until you find success. It's building a ladder up a mountain that already exists.
    - JohnFen 7y ago
      > This requires non-trivial time and resources and is risky. Absolutely true. You need to take a risk to take advantage of an opportunity. > Without the resources you can only try it a few times in a lifetime. If you have time and determination, you really do have all the resources that are necessary (unless you're wanting a get-rich-quick type of thing, of course). There's nothing that limits you to a few times in a lifetime.
      - vinceguidry 7y ago
        Sure, with time and determination, you can build a ladder up a mountain. But one path is as good as another if that's the case. All the 'opportunities' you're ignoring aren't opportunities, they're noise A real opportunity compels you to take advantage of it, you really are losing something if you don't follow it up. What's limiting you to a few tries to a lifetime is time. It takes 5-10 years to properly validate a business model, you can only do that so many times. And you might not be in the same place after an attempt that you were before, meaning it might take even more time.
        JohnFen 7y ago
        I think that we may be defining "opportunity" differently. It sounds like you're defining it more like a "windfall". To me, an opportunity is when you see a path to enhancing your success. It is not automatically success, and does not imply that no effort is required on your part. An opportunity is when you find a way of advancing your goals that has a reasonably good chance of success. > It takes 5-10 years to properly validate a business model, Except that it doesn't. And you should never go into business with a business model that is so fixed that the only thing you can do is to validate it or not. Your business model is something that you are continually adjusting (sometimes radically) as you learn more about what you're doing or as your situation changes.
- mruts 7y ago
  I think what you’re talking about is arbitrage: finding $20 bucks on the ground is an opportunity, but building a whole new currency isn’t. I’m not sure it’s that simple, but it’s certainly an interesting idea.