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It's a strange time. On one hand, the Fed is right that the US economy is strong and does not need stimulus. On the other hand, treasuries are a global market
by nostromo 7y ago
It's a strange time.
On one hand, the Fed is right that the US economy is strong and does not need stimulus.
On the other hand, treasuries are a global market now. And the US is pricing its debt at insanely high rates given that all other advanced, stable economies are paying zero or less. This is leading to capital world-wide gobbling up as much long term US debt as possible, and inverting the curve.
The best path forward would be for the Fed to lower rates closer to market, based on the US's peers, like Europe and Japan. And for the Federal Government to raise taxes gradually (they already are doing this in a sense with tariffs) and lower spending -- so they can react to any future recession with stimulus.
The Fed can act unilaterally, but the harder part is for Congress to put a little money away for a rainy day.
- whatok 7y ago> This is leading to capital world-wide gobbling up as much long term US debt as possible, and inverting the curve. This is not true. TIC data [1] shows a 6.6% increase YoY. Hedging FX risk has made US Treasuries unattractive even with the yield pickup. Most large purchasers (that matter) hedge their FX risk. [1] https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt