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> It was, therefore, just a matter of time before the discovery that inverted yield curves often anticipate recessions resulted in the world’s first yield-curve
by aakilfernandes 7y ago
> It was, therefore, just a matter of time before the discovery that inverted yield curves often anticipate recessions resulted in the world’s first yield-curve induced panic
This is backwards from what I understand. It's the bond market pricing in an economic downturn (lowering of interest rates in the medium term)that inverts the yield curve. The yield curve is how the bond market "speaks". The author seems to be implying the yield curve is some kind of enigmatic, second-order effect not an explicit result of the bond markets view of the economy.
- doctorpangloss 7y agoJust take a look at "While Wall St. Talks of Recession, Bond Investors Make a Killing" (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/bond-market-trade-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/bond-market-trad...) for an idea of how smart it would have been to buy 30 year and other long term bonds. An alternative interpretation of the yield curve is that long term bonds were wildly underpriced, and for some reason still are!
- ak39 7y agoIf I’m not mistaken, the panic spoken of here is in the equities markets. No?
- aakilfernandes 7y agoThe panic was in the equities market, but was triggered by the signals from the bond market.