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I agree with you, but I think there is an even more fundamental issue. P-values really don't tell you anything. They can refute a bad hypothesis but they cannot
by rjf72 7y ago
I agree with you, but I think there is an even more fundamental issue. P-values really don't tell you anything. They can refute a bad hypothesis but they cannot validate a good one. This [1] is such an awesome site. It lists a large number of spurious correlations. It's quite remarkable how strong many of them are. For instance there is a 99.79% correlation between suicides by hanging and US spending on science/space/technology.
The big problem is that since we've already long since entered the world of big data you can now find spurious correlations, similarly strong, but constrained to variables that are plausibly connected. For instance what if this correlation was between spending on science/space/technology and an increase in the number of people pursuing STEM fields? People would immediately just accept it without question, even though it should in theory be held to the same scientific rigor and critique as one that challenges our biases. Science should not be a glorified exercise in confirmation bias. Spurious correlations don't mean you have a biased sample or that such correlations don't exist - it simply means that correlations have no direct relationship.
538 has a great little interactive p-hacking game you can play, with real data. [2] Ultimately any single datum that tries to legitimize a piece of research is going to be gamed. Science should be judged as it was in its 'glory days' - by the logic, predictability, and falsifiability of the ideas presented. Anything that steps outside these bounds should be treated with the most extreme of prejudice. It may be legitimate but the great burden of proof is on the presenter, and that doesn't come down to p-hacking up a 0.00001 correlation and calling it causal.
[1] - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
[2] - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/p-hacking/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/p-hacking/