4 ms·
> But in Bayes' formula, their plans if something else had happened cannot ever affect how we adjust our inferences That's not how statistics works. Frequentis
by ghkbrew 7y ago
> But in Bayes' formula, their plans if something else had happened cannot ever affect how we adjust our inferences
That's not how statistics works. Frequentist p-values and Bayesian inferences are both entirely dependent on the mathematical model in question. "Their plans if something else had happened" are a key part of the model. What you're describing at 2 entirely different experiments:
1) A couple has children until they have 1 of each gender. they have 7 children. How likely is a result this extreme (or greater)?
2) A couple has 7 children. They have a gender ratio of 6:1. How likely is a result this extreme (or greater)?
- btilly 7y agoNo, that is EXACTLY how probability theory works. The probability of event A given that we observed B is the probability of A and B happening divided by the probability that B happened. Mighta, coulda, shoulda but didn't doesn't enter into it and can't affect the result. The fact that frequentist statistics does care and shouldn't is one of the major criticisms that Bayesians offer. If you think you understand statistics and don't understand this fact, then you do not understand statistics as well as you think you do. But you can be pardoned. Most statistics classes are too busy cramming statistical tests into student's heads to bother them with bothersome facts about where the cracks in the foundations are.