4 ms·

John Williams is in the business of creating great soundtracks (haha) and selling subscriptions to his newsletter on inflation. Immediately what stands out at

by dev_jim 16y ago

John Williams is in the business of creating great soundtracks (haha) and selling subscriptions to his newsletter on inflation. Immediately what stands out at me here is his graph. I'd like to see the dataset, but it looks like he is claiming substantial inflation over the past 30 years. I'd guess that it averages out to about 8% a year. That would imply prices have increased over 10x from 1980 vs. 2.66x in the official BLS statistics. What seems more realistic to you?

patrickgzill 16y ago
1980 Cadillac Sedan DeVille, base price $13,292. 2011 Cadillac DTS, base (very base) price $46,280. Difference: 3.5 times . -- Assuming this page is accurate (http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/80sfood.html http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/80sfood.html), Prices look about 4-8 times as much (look at the Pennsylvania 1981 prices) ... butter is $4/lb, bread is $2/loaf or more , etc.
- haploid 16y ago
  Don't bother polluting this thread with facts. HN is clearly dominated by Keynesians. Your dissent will not be tolerated. I believe the standard response writ large upon Bernanke's beard would be something like "But but but the 2011 model has a navigation system and is expected to last an extra 5000 miles, so hedonics alone imputes an extra $30k in value above the 1980 model. No inflation! Run along."
  - natnat 16y ago
    > Don't bother polluting this thread with facts. HN is clearly dominated by Keynesians. Your dissent will not be tolerated. This really isn't a constructive comment. It really possible to discuss different measures of inflation without sticking a general label on people who disagree with you and saying that they live in an alternate universe.
    - haploid 16y ago
      My comment was more a reference to the fact that my original post, and most other posts that express inflationary views, are rapidly downvoted. This opinion is very unpopular amongst the Keynesians/deflationists at HN, who prefer downvoting as a means of expressing disagreement.
      - natnat 16y ago
        There's a difference between saying that you're concerned with the level of inflation we might face if the Federal Reserve decides to do more quantitative easing, and saying that we're going to end up like Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will inevitably have another three QE packages. One is a reasonable argument to make. The other is a political prediction that is very well may not be true, attached to some scary comments about what could happen if your prediction is true. The thing is, we haven't had zimbabwe-like inflation yet, more quantitative easing is not an inevitability, and even if we had more QE we wouldn't necessarily have hyperinflation. You're trying to pick a fight with people who don't think baseless predictions tied to scenarios of doom have no place on HN by calling them names. That's why you're being downvoted.
- jonhendry 16y ago
  I doubt a 2011 Cadillac DTS is directly comparable to a 1980 Cadillac Sedan Deville. There's a lot more technology in a 2011, more advanced creature comforts, etc. ie, if you were to make a car with the build quality and features (am/fm radio, etc) of a 1980 Cadillac, but with modern engineering and assembly, it'd probably be significantly less than $46,280. Especially if they could expect to sell in 1980-level quantities rather than today's.
  - patrickgzill 16y ago
    Whether you know it or not, exactly that sort of reasoning is what is used to manipulate the CPI numbers.

by dev_jim 16y ago

patrickgzill 16y ago

1980 Cadillac Sedan DeVille, base price $13,292. 2011 Cadillac DTS, base (very base) price $46,280. Difference: 3.5 times . -- Assuming this page is accurate (http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/80sfood.html http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/80sfood.html), Prices look about 4-8 times as much (look at the Pennsylvania 1981 prices) ... butter is $4/lb, bread is $2/loaf or more , etc.

haploid 16y ago
Don't bother polluting this thread with facts. HN is clearly dominated by Keynesians. Your dissent will not be tolerated. I believe the standard response writ large upon Bernanke's beard would be something like "But but but the 2011 model has a navigation system and is expected to last an extra 5000 miles, so hedonics alone imputes an extra $30k in value above the 1980 model. No inflation! Run along."
- natnat 16y ago
  > Don't bother polluting this thread with facts. HN is clearly dominated by Keynesians. Your dissent will not be tolerated. This really isn't a constructive comment. It really possible to discuss different measures of inflation without sticking a general label on people who disagree with you and saying that they live in an alternate universe.
  - haploid 16y ago
    My comment was more a reference to the fact that my original post, and most other posts that express inflationary views, are rapidly downvoted. This opinion is very unpopular amongst the Keynesians/deflationists at HN, who prefer downvoting as a means of expressing disagreement.
    - natnat 16y ago
      There's a difference between saying that you're concerned with the level of inflation we might face if the Federal Reserve decides to do more quantitative easing, and saying that we're going to end up like Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will inevitably have another three QE packages. One is a reasonable argument to make. The other is a political prediction that is very well may not be true, attached to some scary comments about what could happen if your prediction is true. The thing is, we haven't had zimbabwe-like inflation yet, more quantitative easing is not an inevitability, and even if we had more QE we wouldn't necessarily have hyperinflation. You're trying to pick a fight with people who don't think baseless predictions tied to scenarios of doom have no place on HN by calling them names. That's why you're being downvoted.
jonhendry 16y ago
I doubt a 2011 Cadillac DTS is directly comparable to a 1980 Cadillac Sedan Deville. There's a lot more technology in a 2011, more advanced creature comforts, etc. ie, if you were to make a car with the build quality and features (am/fm radio, etc) of a 1980 Cadillac, but with modern engineering and assembly, it'd probably be significantly less than $46,280. Especially if they could expect to sell in 1980-level quantities rather than today's.
- patrickgzill 16y ago
  Whether you know it or not, exactly that sort of reasoning is what is used to manipulate the CPI numbers.