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> Hard to imagine it takes 10 more years for the rest of the country to catch up to California. At that rate, California won't surpass 10% until the mid-2020s-

> Hard to imagine it takes 10 more years for the rest of the country to catch up to California. At that rate, California won't surpass 10% until the mid-2020s--maybe 2024/5. Remember, it's already 2019 and in a few months, it'll be 2020. Late-2020s is only a 3-4 years past the mid-2020s.

TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
Is is reasonable to think the rate of change will increase?
- flyingfences 7y ago
  To some extent, for some time. Consider the adoption bell curve; I think California has moved from the "innovators" stage to "early adopters" but the country as a whole has not. Consider also what the saturation point for electric cars will be in the near/medium term - I doubt that the other end of the bell curve is 100% adoption.
  - dougmany 7y ago
    Battery costs are coming down. When electric cars are cheaper than equivalent ICE cars, people will switch. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-15669301816202254.png https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-156... from here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-tesla https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-t...
- tomatotomato37 7y ago
  Probably; the design of a radically different automobile model family takes around 4-5 years, which includes R&D, tooling, new supply chains, etc. This is masked by auto manufacturers constantly throwing out facelifts with a couple gimmicks glued on every year, but the majority of big changes usually come out on a decade basis. The Model 3 came out in 2017; if we assume conventional manufacturers started design of dedicated EV platforms during that time then we should start seeing a large burst of EV models coming out in 2021-2022, spurring demand. That will also probably be the do-or-die point for tesla to get their manufacturing squared away, since that's when the industrial juggernauts of Honda, VW, and the like will be retooled and coming online.

TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago

Is is reasonable to think the rate of change will increase?

flyingfences 7y ago
To some extent, for some time. Consider the adoption bell curve; I think California has moved from the "innovators" stage to "early adopters" but the country as a whole has not. Consider also what the saturation point for electric cars will be in the near/medium term - I doubt that the other end of the bell curve is 100% adoption.
- dougmany 7y ago
  Battery costs are coming down. When electric cars are cheaper than equivalent ICE cars, people will switch. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-15669301816202254.png https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-156... from here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-tesla https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-t...
tomatotomato37 7y ago
Probably; the design of a radically different automobile model family takes around 4-5 years, which includes R&D, tooling, new supply chains, etc. This is masked by auto manufacturers constantly throwing out facelifts with a couple gimmicks glued on every year, but the majority of big changes usually come out on a decade basis. The Model 3 came out in 2017; if we assume conventional manufacturers started design of dedicated EV platforms during that time then we should start seeing a large burst of EV models coming out in 2021-2022, spurring demand. That will also probably be the do-or-die point for tesla to get their manufacturing squared away, since that's when the industrial juggernauts of Honda, VW, and the like will be retooled and coming online.