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We just won't know until we get there. We have hit fundamental limits of physics for other technologies. Planes don't really go any faster today than they did 4
by toasterlovin 7y ago
We just won't know until we get there. We have hit fundamental limits of physics for other technologies. Planes don't really go any faster today than they did 40 years ago. Cars can go faster than they did 40 years ago, but they don't in practice. We don't have flying cars. Etc.
I'm not saying that none of these other computing substrates won't work, just pointing out that the simple fact that we are exploring them does not mean that they will. Technological progress is neither guaranteed nor automatic.
- yogthos 7y agoI mean yes we literally don't know right now. I'm just saying given where our civilization is at, I think it's pretty safe to assume that we have a lot of room to grow here. Once we've done computing for a thousand years or so we'll be looking back at this the way we look at cavemen banging rocks together.
- toasterlovin 7y agoSeems like a decent probability outcome to me. But it also seems like a decent probability outcome that we hit the end of the line of what’s feasible with silicon lithography in the next couple of decades and computing substrate progress basically stalls out for decades or longer until some other breakthrough happens. A parallel would be the stall in progress on personal automobiles until lithium ion batteries made electrification possible in the last decade.
- yogthos 7y agoAgree completely.