2 ms·

Statistical analysis of NFL 4th down strategy

7 points by microtherion 16y ago

zdw 16y ago
Could someone provide a TL;DR for this? Frankly, even the conclusion is pretty obtuse.
- requinot59 16y ago
  Differences in speed, mainly, explains the average performance of a "player".
- microtherion 16y ago
  TL;DR for football coaches: If you have a 4th & 2 from your own 10 in the first quarter, go for it! TL;DR for football fans: The take-away graph is Fig. 4 on pg. 353. The solid line represents when a team SHOULD go for it on 4th down to maximize expected points. The dashed line represents when teams DO go for it. Bottom line is that teams go for it MUCH less often than would maximize their expected points. TL;DR for economists: NFL coaching could be assumed to be a case where (a) a lot of objective data is available to base decisions on (b) the result to be maximized (wins) would appear to be fairly obvious (c) decision makers (coaches) are highly qualified and highly motivated. Yet in practice, coaches systematically deviate from the strategy that would maximize wins. It's not clear whether this is due to (I) the "true" result coaches are trying to maximize is NOT wins or (II) coaches not making strictly rational decisions. TL;DR for hackers: I found the analytical reasoning (opportunity cost; etc) interesting, and found it worth reading the whole thing for that.
  - waterside81 16y ago
    If you have a 4th & 2 from your own 10 in the first quarter, go for it! No matter what the math says, no coach will do this (save for maybe Billichek, but even he's not that bold). Sports is one of those areas where the "gut" and conventions are more important than stats and probabilities. Moneyball is a great book for anybody whose interested in the intersection of sports conventions and math. http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-Game/dp/0393057658 http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-Game/dp/0...
    - Anechoic 16y ago
      I don't know if Belichick has done it from his own ten (I doubt it) but on 4-and-1 or 4-and-inches in his own territory he's gone for it on several occasions (usually a quarterback sneak).
    - microtherion 16y ago
      Actually, there was an article a while ago about a high school coach who NEVER punted or tried a field goal: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_wertheim/09/17/no.punt/index.html http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_wertheim/0... I've read Moneyball, and I find it interesting that statistical methods have been accepted so much more in baseball over the last decade or so, but seem to still be shunned in football, at least for this particular situation.
Anechoic 16y ago
Gregg Easterbrook (Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on ESPN.com) has been a huge proponent of "don't punt" and wrote about this paper a couple of years ago: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060926 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/... http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrookpreview/070904 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrookp...

7 points by microtherion 16y ago

zdw 16y ago

Could someone provide a TL;DR for this? Frankly, even the conclusion is pretty obtuse.

requinot59 16y ago
Differences in speed, mainly, explains the average performance of a "player".
microtherion 16y ago
TL;DR for football coaches: If you have a 4th & 2 from your own 10 in the first quarter, go for it! TL;DR for football fans: The take-away graph is Fig. 4 on pg. 353. The solid line represents when a team SHOULD go for it on 4th down to maximize expected points. The dashed line represents when teams DO go for it. Bottom line is that teams go for it MUCH less often than would maximize their expected points. TL;DR for economists: NFL coaching could be assumed to be a case where (a) a lot of objective data is available to base decisions on (b) the result to be maximized (wins) would appear to be fairly obvious (c) decision makers (coaches) are highly qualified and highly motivated. Yet in practice, coaches systematically deviate from the strategy that would maximize wins. It's not clear whether this is due to (I) the "true" result coaches are trying to maximize is NOT wins or (II) coaches not making strictly rational decisions. TL;DR for hackers: I found the analytical reasoning (opportunity cost; etc) interesting, and found it worth reading the whole thing for that.
- waterside81 16y ago
  If you have a 4th & 2 from your own 10 in the first quarter, go for it! No matter what the math says, no coach will do this (save for maybe Billichek, but even he's not that bold). Sports is one of those areas where the "gut" and conventions are more important than stats and probabilities. Moneyball is a great book for anybody whose interested in the intersection of sports conventions and math. http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-Game/dp/0393057658 http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-Game/dp/0...
  - Anechoic 16y ago
    I don't know if Belichick has done it from his own ten (I doubt it) but on 4-and-1 or 4-and-inches in his own territory he's gone for it on several occasions (usually a quarterback sneak).
  - microtherion 16y ago
    Actually, there was an article a while ago about a high school coach who NEVER punted or tried a field goal: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_wertheim/09/17/no.punt/index.html http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_wertheim/0... I've read Moneyball, and I find it interesting that statistical methods have been accepted so much more in baseball over the last decade or so, but seem to still be shunned in football, at least for this particular situation.

Anechoic 16y ago

Gregg Easterbrook (Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on ESPN.com) has been a huge proponent of "don't punt" and wrote about this paper a couple of years ago: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060926 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/... http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrookpreview/070904 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrookp...