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This article is propaganda written by a shill. Based on the author's logic you might as well throw up your hands and stop trying to predict anything. Roubini
by forensic 16y ago
This article is propaganda written by a shill.
Based on the author's logic you might as well throw up your hands and stop trying to predict anything.
Roubini didn't get his message from God, he made it based on a public, replicable analysis using standard economic theory from his economic school. Other people from his economic school also made the same predictions that followed logically from their premises and the indicators.
This is like saying when a doctor tells a patient that if he keeps smoking he will get cancer, and the patient gets cancer, he just did it by luck.
It's not by luck. He is not making wild speculations. He's doing it systematically based on logic and facts and a respected system that has a level of credibility behind it.
All the austrians predicted the housing bubble.
This article is a hit piece, pure and simple. It is teaching the reader to be stupid.
- tsiki 16y agoThe austrians also predicted 20 of the last 3 recessions.
- borism 16y agothe Austrian school is not scientific, but religious branch of Economics though: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School#Criticism_of_the_Austrian_School http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School#Criticism_of_th...
- iwwr 16y agoForecasting the economy is trickier than the weather, even with the advanced quantitative tools available to Economists today. Standard economic models were totally blind to the collapse. In fact, following standard models was worse than having no model at all, it created false security and hid risk from the markets. Austrians don't concern themselves too much with quantitative models because they are inherently unreliable. The main idea is that interfering in prices produces negative consequences in the same manner that any control of prices does. The Austrians are simply extending the theory of price controls to interest rates.
- jamiequint 16y ago"Based on the author's logic you might as well throw up your hands and stop trying to predict anything." You say this like it proves the author is wrong. This point isn't really that obscure, Nicholas Nassim Taleb sold millions of books making this very point over the last couple years. "This is like saying when a doctor tells a patient that if he keeps smoking he will get cancer, and the patient gets cancer, he just did it by luck." No, this is a poor analogy. Its more like saying that if you keep predicting someone is going to get cancer for smoking, eating apples, drinking Coors Light, and playing basketball you shouldn't get any credibility for being right on one and wrong on all the others. "All the austrians predicted the housing bubble." Yes, but they also mispredicted a lot of other things, thats the point.
- iwwr 16y agoTo be fair, Roubini is no Austrian, far from it, he is a Keynesian. He was simply a high-profile Keynesian who was not blind to the storm.