I just downloaded and took a look at the paper. I've got a problem with it -- it is only looking at data from 2006-2009. This is an issue, because of the way t

I just downloaded and took a look at the paper. I've got a problem with it -- it is only looking at data from 2006-2009. This is an issue, because of the way that benching starters has become conventional wisdom over the last 25 years. In fact, the foul out rate is down over 40% during that period (http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/12/nba-players-are-fouling-out-less-often-and-other-interesting-facts-you-didnt-think-you-wanted-to-know-about-fouling-out/ http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/12/nba-players-are-fouling...). So on one hand, yes, playing a starter in foul trouble could cause them to be less aggressive. On the other hand, I suspect there is VERY strong cultural bias that magnifies this. I would imagine that an NBA team that has either veteran players or a very strong culture of understanding advanced statistics would be able to play as well when in foul trouble. (Think San Antonio, Boston, Dallas and Houston). I would also imagine that the evidence would not be as strong when looking at other time periods. So it's an interesting observation, but it makes sense that coaches approach this issue on a case-by-case basis. Play Tim Duncan, bench Blake Griffin.