Your little game theory puzzle actually just goes to show that 'intelligence' is mostly FUD. There was a great article posted the other day on HN suggesting th

Your little game theory puzzle actually just goes to show that 'intelligence' is mostly FUD. There was a great article posted the other day on HN suggesting that MI5 had not, in it's entire history during the cold war, unearthed any concrete evidence of, or caught any, Russian spies (save for two instances uncovered incidentally by local police, and one who was a royal and hence never charged). But none of that mattered. The appearance of subterfuge and counter, is much more important than any actual success. And as you suggested, there needn't have been any mole at all, for the events to play out exactly as they did.