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Abstract: We use a large dataset of play-by-play NBA data to determine when yanking foul-plagued starters is optimal by applying insights and tools from financ
by kia 16y ago
Abstract:
We use a large dataset of play-by-play NBA data to determine when yanking foul-plagued starters is optimal by applying insights and tools from finance. We find that a team performs significantly worse if a starter with foul trouble is allowed to remain in the game, and that this effect is strongest in the third quarter. We use a novel win-probability technique that is sufficiently general to be useful for other questions simply by appropriately redefining the state variables. Thus, our two contributions are to introduce the new approach and also to demonstrate its usefulness by solving the problem of early foul trouble that had remained unaddressed in the academic literature.
- ams6110 16y agoGiven the financial stakes at play in professional (and even amateur) athletics, I find it hard to believe that an analysis of optimal "play or sit" strategy wrt player fouls has "remained unaddressed" though a cursory search on Google Scholar didn't turn up much of anything in the way of a counter-example.
- jdminhbg 16y agoIt's likely that an analysis has been done, but isn't public. Teams keep lots of advanced stats to themselves as a competitive advantage.