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I think a major topic missed is this 1 in 1000. I think the only chance involved in this, practically speaking, is that the ESAs data about the orbits had enoug

by Rapzid 7y ago

I think a major topic missed is this 1 in 1000. I think the only chance involved in this, practically speaking, is that the ESAs data about the orbits had enough error in it to not be sure there would be no collision. This is a lot different than rolling dice or betting on black. Likely there was or was not going to be a collision; run it 1 million times and the results would always be the same. Perhaps Space-X had more optimistic odds.

FireBeyond 7y ago
And yet ESA's risk model said "Move the satellite if the odds are less than 1:10,000". Easy enough for you to say when it isn't your $2.3B satellite, I suppose.
greglindahl 7y ago
Do you think everyone agrees on those odds? There are other organizations that model collisions and they usually disagree.