4 ms·

Direct action is a very important part of democracy.

mc32 7y ago
I just wonder if this tactic will work against an army from the outside? I mean the HK police are part of the people. I bet the troops would be from non Cantonese speaking provinces. I’m not sure they’d be “shamed”. One can hope that if it came to it the generals and colonels would show empathy, but the foot soldier is conflicted. The brass should be the ones laying down their pins, stripes, badges and stars. A foot soldier (infantryman) is indoctrinated, but the brass are educated and should understand all the implications down the road.
- philwelch 7y ago
  Once the PLA comes in, they will most likely follow the playbook from Beijing in 1989. Use troops from distant provinces that are already unsympathetic towards the protestors (an attitude China is heavily encouraging in the mainland population already via state media) and overwhelm the protestors with lethal force. The CCP is for some reason waiting to see whether they will have to resort to these measures. Probably due to anticipated blowback from the international community and the risk of economic damage to HK itself. But once the army does get involved, it’s all over.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    How prepared are mainland PLA forces for urban insurgency tactics? Lethal force is likely the spark that ignites the powder keg.
    - mc32 7y ago
      They wouldn’t have to. They could lay siege. It’s a port. It’s mountainous. It doesn’t produce much of its own food. They could blockade it. That said, if they bring in the PLA, it’s over. They are conscripts. One hope is the generals would insubordinate.
      - dsfyu404ed 7y ago
        A siege buys time for international sanctions to be felt at home. If they go all in with the violence that would inflame the situation and possibly unite Hong Kong against them. It's really, really, really hard to rule over millions of people who don't want you there. There's fine line they have to walk between inflaming the situation and acting too slowly.
        philwelch 7y ago
        Guess what, they did it in Beijing and it worked out for them. This isn’t a fucking democracy we’re talking about.
    - philwelch 7y ago
      Urban insurgency tactics? These people aren’t armed in any meaningful way nor is there any way for them to become armed.
  - geowwy 7y ago
    I doubt the PLA will march into Hong Kong. 1989 was seen as an existential threat to the CCP. The HK protests are not.
dsfyu404ed 7y ago
Yes, but these people are on box 3/4 and 4/4 does not exist for them (barring some serious foreign intervention). I am not hopeful but I hope I am wrong.

mc32 7y ago

I just wonder if this tactic will work against an army from the outside? I mean the HK police are part of the people. I bet the troops would be from non Cantonese speaking provinces. I’m not sure they’d be “shamed”. One can hope that if it came to it the generals and colonels would show empathy, but the foot soldier is conflicted. The brass should be the ones laying down their pins, stripes, badges and stars. A foot soldier (infantryman) is indoctrinated, but the brass are educated and should understand all the implications down the road.

philwelch 7y ago
Once the PLA comes in, they will most likely follow the playbook from Beijing in 1989. Use troops from distant provinces that are already unsympathetic towards the protestors (an attitude China is heavily encouraging in the mainland population already via state media) and overwhelm the protestors with lethal force. The CCP is for some reason waiting to see whether they will have to resort to these measures. Probably due to anticipated blowback from the international community and the risk of economic damage to HK itself. But once the army does get involved, it’s all over.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  How prepared are mainland PLA forces for urban insurgency tactics? Lethal force is likely the spark that ignites the powder keg.
  - mc32 7y ago
    They wouldn’t have to. They could lay siege. It’s a port. It’s mountainous. It doesn’t produce much of its own food. They could blockade it. That said, if they bring in the PLA, it’s over. They are conscripts. One hope is the generals would insubordinate.
    - dsfyu404ed 7y ago
      A siege buys time for international sanctions to be felt at home. If they go all in with the violence that would inflame the situation and possibly unite Hong Kong against them. It's really, really, really hard to rule over millions of people who don't want you there. There's fine line they have to walk between inflaming the situation and acting too slowly.
      - philwelch 7y ago
        Guess what, they did it in Beijing and it worked out for them. This isn’t a fucking democracy we’re talking about.
  - philwelch 7y ago
    Urban insurgency tactics? These people aren’t armed in any meaningful way nor is there any way for them to become armed.
- geowwy 7y ago
  I doubt the PLA will march into Hong Kong. 1989 was seen as an existential threat to the CCP. The HK protests are not.

dsfyu404ed 7y ago

Yes, but these people are on box 3/4 and 4/4 does not exist for them (barring some serious foreign intervention). I am not hopeful but I hope I am wrong.