yes, mainly, i'm using the nba to show that even among folks who are constantly and publicly evaluated for ~10 years (the time from discovery to draft), you hav

yes, mainly, i'm using the nba to show that even among folks who are constantly and publicly evaluated for ~10 years (the time from discovery to draft), you have ~10-20% chance of hiring the right player at the right time. so then, why would one expect to be able to evaluate a candidate for a few hours and do better than that? if anything, professional (office) skills are harder to evaluate than athletic ones. reasonable folks should expect only 10-20% of hires to be good fits, regardless of the skill or integrity of the hire.