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Right, and Germany is seeing a rise in populism too so maybe they're also facing similar macro trends... It's worth noting that both Scandinavia and Germany ar

by yomly 7y ago

Right, and Germany is seeing a rise in populism too so maybe they're also facing similar macro trends... It's worth noting that both Scandinavia and Germany are far less economically libertarian than most Americans would palate too

Mikeb85 7y ago
Well they're seeing a rise in immigration (which economically speaking has the same effect as offshoring) which is large enough to offset the equalising effects of the welfare state, and while I'm not super up to date on their politics, I'd guess the welfare state might also be weakening because of the need to support the influx of new immigrants. Also, crime rises/falls depending on economic outcomes for the lower segment of the population. If there's too many immigrants unable to find jobs or integrate, crime rises which can cause discontent.
- aries1980 7y ago
  > Well they're seeing a rise in immigration (which economically speaking has the same effect as offshoring) Not really, because some or all of he income of these immigrants are taxed and spent domestically.
  - Mikeb85 7y ago
    Decreasing the cost of labour through immigration is the same. Most immigrants also send money back home. So yes it's the same effect even if the it's not quite the same amount.
    - aries1980 7y ago
      But discounting the labour cost is not the only dimension. These immigrants are spending money domestically, increasing the domestic output, creating new market demands, paying rents, etc. I do understand your logic, but my argument is while offshore money is spent outside the borders, immigrants spend most of their income domestically and pay their taxes, which is a too big difference to put it into the same category.
      - Mikeb85 7y ago
        Because their income is discounted, they are more likely to receive social assistance and they send money abroad, in the short-medium term their economic effect is similar to offshoring. Long term, they bring their family over, raise families in the host country, get better jobs and integrate (culturally and economically) so the offshoring effect disappears. The main problem is, especially concerning the rise of populism, when the short term effects become too severe, the long term outcomes don't matter to those who have been affected by lowering wages during their working years. And it's not every industry, perhaps not even a majority who are affected, but for those who are, they feel as though their social contract has been broken, and they vote for whoever promises to fix it. This forum is mostly IT workers. For awhile, wages in this sector in the US were suppressed by things like cartels and H1B visas, and subsequently action was taken to enforce proper employment laws and increase the wage requirements for H1Bs. That was 1 sector, not even that much immigration, and wages showed a noticeable dip. People here were outraged too, but it was before the Trump years so the whole conversation had a different tone. Anyhow, I don't think immigration is bad, but there are pros and cons, different effects on the economy and people, and these definitely need to be accounted for.

by yomly 7y ago

Mikeb85 7y ago

Well they're seeing a rise in immigration (which economically speaking has the same effect as offshoring) which is large enough to offset the equalising effects of the welfare state, and while I'm not super up to date on their politics, I'd guess the welfare state might also be weakening because of the need to support the influx of new immigrants. Also, crime rises/falls depending on economic outcomes for the lower segment of the population. If there's too many immigrants unable to find jobs or integrate, crime rises which can cause discontent.

aries1980 7y ago
> Well they're seeing a rise in immigration (which economically speaking has the same effect as offshoring) Not really, because some or all of he income of these immigrants are taxed and spent domestically.
- Mikeb85 7y ago
  Decreasing the cost of labour through immigration is the same. Most immigrants also send money back home. So yes it's the same effect even if the it's not quite the same amount.
  - aries1980 7y ago
    But discounting the labour cost is not the only dimension. These immigrants are spending money domestically, increasing the domestic output, creating new market demands, paying rents, etc. I do understand your logic, but my argument is while offshore money is spent outside the borders, immigrants spend most of their income domestically and pay their taxes, which is a too big difference to put it into the same category.
    - Mikeb85 7y ago
      Because their income is discounted, they are more likely to receive social assistance and they send money abroad, in the short-medium term their economic effect is similar to offshoring. Long term, they bring their family over, raise families in the host country, get better jobs and integrate (culturally and economically) so the offshoring effect disappears. The main problem is, especially concerning the rise of populism, when the short term effects become too severe, the long term outcomes don't matter to those who have been affected by lowering wages during their working years. And it's not every industry, perhaps not even a majority who are affected, but for those who are, they feel as though their social contract has been broken, and they vote for whoever promises to fix it. This forum is mostly IT workers. For awhile, wages in this sector in the US were suppressed by things like cartels and H1B visas, and subsequently action was taken to enforce proper employment laws and increase the wage requirements for H1Bs. That was 1 sector, not even that much immigration, and wages showed a noticeable dip. People here were outraged too, but it was before the Trump years so the whole conversation had a different tone. Anyhow, I don't think immigration is bad, but there are pros and cons, different effects on the economy and people, and these definitely need to be accounted for.