3 ms·

So is it merely luck that this crashes doesn't happen in US ?

by matz1 7y ago

simion314 7y ago
IMO yes, but even if US pilots are in average 10x better there still was a chance that you would fly with a 1x pilot and because he would have followed the checklist and crash the plane. Do you have facts that say that the probability of this happening in US was 0 ?
- matz1 7y ago
  I don't think anyone insinuating that the probability of this happening in US was 0 but the fact remain that the number of crash so far is 0.
  - bronson 7y ago
    The fact is, Greece also has 0 crashes. Your statement doesn't make any sense. What is different about the US? (Other than we had fewer MAX-8 deliveries than the rest of the world)
    - matz1 7y ago
      Which of my statement doesn't make any sense ? >What is different about the US? Thats the question that I asked.
      - bronson 7y ago
        "fact remain that the number of crash so far is 0" makes zero sense. And you even got an answer to your question. The number of deliveries is different. What's your point?
        matz1 7y ago
        > "fact remain that the number of crash so far is 0" makes zero sense My statement is not a fact ? okay >And you even got an answer to your question. The number of deliveries is different And I didn't refute or deny that either.
    - elkos 7y ago
      As far as I remember no Greek airlines (p.e. Aegean) have MAX-8s.
  - simion314 7y ago
    Do you even studied statistics? There was no crashes in Canada or X country , what conclusion can you make from this?
  - linuxftw 7y ago
    Well, except for the major airlines, Boeing, and the FAA were saying pretty much that after the first crash, with absolutely no technical basis for saying it. Those parties continued to assure the public that the aircraft were completely safe until the entire rest of the planet ground the aircraft and the US President ordered the FAA to ground the aircraft.
brohee 7y ago
The majority of the delivered ones were so outside the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_...
privateSFacct 7y ago
This is a good question. A number of possible answers (and no, pilot skill not the only one - though everyone is focusing on that and boeing). Maintenance. This issue develops IF the computer gets bad data from a sensor. Question - would this sort of thing get fixed more quickly in the US? For the Ethiopian crash we have in days leading up to crash errors in the system - all different flights * Capt side altimeter erratic, showed a decent and lower level then back to normal. * During approach at 1000' the aircraft started to roll right with the auto pilot engaged. * During approach at 8K altimeter rapidly descended and returned to normal - caused autopilot problems. * During takeoff altitude and vert speed on both PFDs showed erratic indications For Lion Air in days leading up an increase in warnings. Some excerpts. * Speed trim fail light and mach trim fail light * Auto throttle diconnect * Speed and Alt flag * Feel diff pressure - fail light illuminated * Maintenance light illuminated during landing Regulatory regime What's the local situation in terms of check rides, maintenance monitoring and cross checks, airline procedure monitoring etc. Ethiopia has a relatively stronger reputation here. Training The memory item in this situation is basically a revert to manual flight. There is a possibility that manual flight is not as common in some countries, particularly if they don't have a large General Aviation pool to pull from. This is a concern in US as well (automation reliance). The path to getting onto a jet in US is currently different than other places. To be a first officer takes 1,500+ hours and an ATP. That's a pretty high bar. This is a design issue I think as well -> should Boeing reasonably consider that there may be differences between pilot groups in terms of training pathways. I would suggest obviously yes. Is the FAA at fault because other countries may choose different approaches? That's less clear to me. BTW the FAA did a terrible job for a while with small charter operators in financial distress with bad maintenance for example - so the FAA has blindspots but their Part 121 stuff has a good record so far. The US system has had some amazing saves -> failures with airport bird control -> capt sully etc. Often these pilots aren't jet fighter pilots but have things like glider or small plane experience that is helpful. So systems break down in US, but saves happen. My US worries are maintenance given cost pressures and actually Air Traffic Control (given fatigue and some weakening of standards there around new hiring).

So is it merely luck that this crashes doesn't happen in US ?

by matz1 7y ago

So is it merely luck that this crashes doesn't happen in US ?

IMO yes, but even if US pilots are in average 10x better there still was a chance that you would fly with a 1x pilot and because he would have followed the checklist and crash the plane. Do you have facts that say that the probability of this happening in US was 0 ?

matz1 7y ago
I don't think anyone insinuating that the probability of this happening in US was 0 but the fact remain that the number of crash so far is 0.
- bronson 7y ago
  The fact is, Greece also has 0 crashes. Your statement doesn't make any sense. What is different about the US? (Other than we had fewer MAX-8 deliveries than the rest of the world)
  - matz1 7y ago
    Which of my statement doesn't make any sense ? >What is different about the US? Thats the question that I asked.
    - bronson 7y ago
      "fact remain that the number of crash so far is 0" makes zero sense. And you even got an answer to your question. The number of deliveries is different. What's your point?
      - matz1 7y ago
        > "fact remain that the number of crash so far is 0" makes zero sense My statement is not a fact ? okay >And you even got an answer to your question. The number of deliveries is different And I didn't refute or deny that either.
  - elkos 7y ago
    As far as I remember no Greek airlines (p.e. Aegean) have MAX-8s.
- simion314 7y ago
  Do you even studied statistics? There was no crashes in Canada or X country , what conclusion can you make from this?
- linuxftw 7y ago
  Well, except for the major airlines, Boeing, and the FAA were saying pretty much that after the first crash, with absolutely no technical basis for saying it. Those parties continued to assure the public that the aircraft were completely safe until the entire rest of the planet ground the aircraft and the US President ordered the FAA to ground the aircraft.

brohee 7y ago

The majority of the delivered ones were so outside the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_...

privateSFacct 7y ago

This is a good question. A number of possible answers (and no, pilot skill not the only one - though everyone is focusing on that and boeing). Maintenance. This issue develops IF the computer gets bad data from a sensor. Question - would this sort of thing get fixed more quickly in the US? For the Ethiopian crash we have in days leading up to crash errors in the system - all different flights * Capt side altimeter erratic, showed a decent and lower level then back to normal. * During approach at 1000' the aircraft started to roll right with the auto pilot engaged. * During approach at 8K altimeter rapidly descended and returned to normal - caused autopilot problems. * During takeoff altitude and vert speed on both PFDs showed erratic indications For Lion Air in days leading up an increase in warnings. Some excerpts. * Speed trim fail light and mach trim fail light * Auto throttle diconnect * Speed and Alt flag * Feel diff pressure - fail light illuminated * Maintenance light illuminated during landing Regulatory regime What's the local situation in terms of check rides, maintenance monitoring and cross checks, airline procedure monitoring etc. Ethiopia has a relatively stronger reputation here. Training The memory item in this situation is basically a revert to manual flight. There is a possibility that manual flight is not as common in some countries, particularly if they don't have a large General Aviation pool to pull from. This is a concern in US as well (automation reliance). The path to getting onto a jet in US is currently different than other places. To be a first officer takes 1,500+ hours and an ATP. That's a pretty high bar. This is a design issue I think as well -> should Boeing reasonably consider that there may be differences between pilot groups in terms of training pathways. I would suggest obviously yes. Is the FAA at fault because other countries may choose different approaches? That's less clear to me. BTW the FAA did a terrible job for a while with small charter operators in financial distress with bad maintenance for example - so the FAA has blindspots but their Part 121 stuff has a good record so far. The US system has had some amazing saves -> failures with airport bird control -> capt sully etc. Often these pilots aren't jet fighter pilots but have things like glider or small plane experience that is helpful. So systems break down in US, but saves happen. My US worries are maintenance given cost pressures and actually Air Traffic Control (given fatigue and some weakening of standards there around new hiring).