3 ms·
> People have a strong tendency not to trust forecasters It's possible a lot of this bias is just outdated, up until very recently most hurricane (cyclone in m
by flukus 7y ago
> People have a strong tendency not to trust forecasters
It's possible a lot of this bias is just outdated, up until very recently most hurricane (cyclone in my case) warnings came with a disclaimer like "cyclones or notoriously unpredictable and can make sudden, unexpected course changes" and for the most part this was true even in the short term. I don't think I've seen a wildly incorrect forecast in my area in 20 years but my mother still believes in this inherent unpredictability.
- albertocairo 7y agoThe challenge is that, eventually, the forecast of one storm will be wildly off. This is inevitable. But that doesn't mean that the forecast was necessarily incorrect. I think that this is what it's crucial to explain to the public: the general meaning of uncertainty. We need to learn to deal with it.