3 ms·
Yes, exactly. The cone is as accurate as it can be, by which I mean: accurate but with a huge degree of uncertainty. The challenge is that some readers tend to
by albertocairo 7y ago
Yes, exactly. The cone is as accurate as it can be, by which I mean: accurate but with a huge degree of uncertainty. The challenge is that some readers tend to read it as deterministic, and get it wrong by:
1. Thinking "If I'm inside of the cone I'm in danger, if I'm outside I'm good" (wrong! 1/3 of the time the storm will be outside of the cone!)
2. If I'm inside of the cone AND under its center line/dots of I'll worry a lot, but if I'm inside and in between the center of the cone and its boundary, I can relax (I'd be VERY careful with this, as it isn't true either).
- spectramax 7y agoAnd your article drives this point home really well. I honestly don't understand the criticism - the hurricane example you picked from 2017 is just to make a point - which people in this thread are unnecessarily complaining about.