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Where do you see the article implying the forecast was inaccurate? To me the author is only saying that how people interpret it is inaccurate which is the enti
by nightski 7y ago
Where do you see the article implying the forecast was inaccurate? To me the author is only saying that how people interpret it is inaccurate which is the entire point of the article.
- albertocairo 7y agoYes, exactly. The cone is as accurate as it can be, by which I mean: accurate but with a huge degree of uncertainty. The challenge is that some readers tend to read it as deterministic, and get it wrong by: 1. Thinking "If I'm inside of the cone I'm in danger, if I'm outside I'm good" (wrong! 1/3 of the time the storm will be outside of the cone!) 2. If I'm inside of the cone AND under its center line/dots of I'll worry a lot, but if I'm inside and in between the center of the cone and its boundary, I can relax (I'd be VERY careful with this, as it isn't true either).
- spectramax 7y agoAnd your article drives this point home really well. I honestly don't understand the criticism - the hurricane example you picked from 2017 is just to make a point - which people in this thread are unnecessarily complaining about.