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"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." That someone failed to make money on the market doesn't necessarily mean they were wrong
by geofft 7y ago
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
That someone failed to make money on the market doesn't necessarily mean they were wrong, it may just mean nobody gave them a pile of money they could afford to risk.
- readams 7y agoWith something like inflation over a 10 year period this isn't true. In ten years either it was lower than you thought or it wasn't, and you can make lots of money based on the spread of inflation-protected and non-inflation protected assets.
- selectodude 7y agoThe Big Short is a fantastic read due to watching somebody who you know is right, and knows that he's right, almost get wiped out because the market teetered on the edge of the precipice for over a year.
- baroffoos 7y agoBeing right doesn't mean very much. A broken clock is right twice a day. If I say something will go up I have a 50% chance of that being true. That doesn't mean anyone should take my advice on the future.
- geofft 7y agoSure, I'm just saying the argument above was fallacious. That an argument against X is fallacious does not mean X is true.