3 ms·

There are two problems here. People don't know what the cone means. But even if they did, how are they supposed to act on it? It's hard to know what the cone m

There are two problems here. People don't know what the cone means. But even if they did, how are they supposed to act on it? It's hard to know what the cone means because it's way too over-simplified and they really shouldn't have that line there. Of course people are going to be confused. Why can't it just be a color coated overlay where different colors mean different probabilities of the hurricanes path? Even if you do know what the cone means, how are you supposed to act on it? What if I live 10 miles from the cone, should I prepare? How about 20 miles? 100 miles? 500 miles? 1,000 miles? And the idea I had doesn't really solve this problem either. How are you supposed to act on the probabilities? If there's a 50% chance, do I prepare? What about 20%? 10%? 5%? 1%? 0.1%?

lutorm 7y ago
"How are you supposed to act on the probabilities? If there's a 50% chance, do I prepare? What about 20%? 10%? 5%? 1%? 0.1%?" Everyone has to make their own judgement based on their risk tolerance, but at least that would be the correct data to use. If you need 24/7 power for your medical equipment, you'll probably make a different call than someone who can ride out a month in their well-stocked, off-grid bunker.
flukus 7y ago
> If there's a 50% chance, do I prepare? What about 20%? 10%? 5%? 1%? 0.1%? Prepared/unprepared isn't a binary state either and your level of preparation can match the certainty. At 10% check your supplies of water, candles, gas, canned food. At 20% decide if you'll evacuate. At 50% tape/board up the windows.