5 ms·

>As soon as the competition is dead they'll be talking about how non-viable $21/hr is. Won't even have to do that, wait for inflation to take hold (I believe i

>As soon as the competition is dead they'll be talking about how non-viable $21/hr is. Won't even have to do that, wait for inflation to take hold (I believe inflation is very likely to explode in the next few years) and just ride it out.

notfromhere 7y ago
hyperinflation has always "been around the corner" by every financial crank with a blog. It's not coming.
- fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
  I'm not talking about weimar republic style hyperinflation my feeling is more on the order of 5 - 12% (maybe not even by CPI standards). Essentially 1970's style stagflation again. CA wages are already high a few years of that and Uber will be back at baseline.
- turtlecloud 7y ago
  What are you talking about? It’s already here. A home in Bay Area is close to 2 mil now lol.
  - xeromal 7y ago
    How much is a meal at mcdonalds?
  - Loughla 7y ago
    Why is a home in an unbelievably popular place to live, which is also full of massive amounts of new money, your measure of inflation? A home near me is about 100k for 2000 sq ft main floor. Does that mean inflation doesn't exist? What a weird argument.
  - notfromhere 7y ago
    that's localized inflation due to housing scarcity in the Bay, it's not hitting the economy as a whole.
crooked-v 7y ago
A $21/hour wage in SoCal wouldn't have any noticeable effect on inflation compared to the effect of Silicon Valley and all the tech companies in San Francisco, and the north half of the state has few enough Uber-ers that it wouldn't do anything there either.
- eloff 7y ago
  The OP is predicting inflation from other causes, not from what uber does. Even the largest company cannot drive inflation by itself.
JamesBarney 7y ago
All the smart money disagrees with you and thinks the 10 yr inflation rate will be 1.54% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
- fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
  They disagreed with me about housing prices as well a decade or so ago as well.
  - Fede_V 7y ago
    And I presume you made an utter killing by putting your money where your belief were? Because if you didn't I don't believe you in the slightest.
    - fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
      I was about 13 years old I didn't have much capitol to invest. I just put together the two pieces of the puzzle that housing prices were rising much faster than wages and that a products price can't continuously rise faster then the consumers ability to pay for that product. I guess the "smart money" missed that. Now we have a bunch of presidential candidates that tell me they are going to print money all day long and a bunch of people who "know better" telling me that won't cause inflation to spike. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
      - bsanr2 7y ago
        >Print money Taxing isn't printing.
        fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
        The democrats can never seem to manage to tax the wealthy (themselves effectively) when push comes to shove. I'm not trying to be partisan, Republicans similarly are unable to cut spending. Perhaps this time will be different but I'm betting against that personally. Also it is my belief that moving money from investment vehicles to consumers will have a inflationary effect on consumer goods. The slow trickle of subsidized Uber rides for example probably has less of an effect than a direct cash transfer that happens more rapidly. More so much of that money is invested internationally, by increasing taxes on the wealthy we may be in effect increasing the total money supply in the United States.
SEJeff 7y ago
Uber will just "ride it out"
somebodythere 7y ago
> I believe inflation is very likely to explode in the next few years Why?
- fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
  A number of factors: 1. Money is essentially free at current interest rates and I don't see a sign of that reversing course. 2. Large firms are hording cash and have more than they know what to do with. They are at the point where they are buying their own stock because that is the most productive thing they can do with that money. 3. The democratic party is running on minimum wage increases. While it is debatable if that will have a huge impact it certainly isn't a deflationary measure. 4. Democrats are also running on the green new deal, universal income and medicare for all that I predict will not actually result in higher taxes for the wealthy in any meaningful way but instead the printing of money in order to fund those programs as that is what seems to happen every time. Even if taxes were implemented as discussed, moving money from investment vehicles (where the wealthy have it) to consumers will still probably cause inflation in terms of housing and consumer goods. 5. China is sitting on about 3 trillion dollars that is currently effectively out of the money supply and they will likely deploy that as a weapon in the trade war.
  - rurp 7y ago
    Why single out the Democrats? The people _currently_ running the government are acting as if money grows on trees; just look at the federal deficit over the past couple years.
    - fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
      While that is true it is printing money for distributive purposes that I'm more worried about. Spending a few billion on bombs to blow up houses on other continents, or to prop up the stock of oil companies for example won't really move the inflation needle in regards to consumer goods as much as printing it to throw it out of a helicopter would in my estimation.

notfromhere 7y ago

hyperinflation has always "been around the corner" by every financial crank with a blog. It's not coming.

fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
I'm not talking about weimar republic style hyperinflation my feeling is more on the order of 5 - 12% (maybe not even by CPI standards). Essentially 1970's style stagflation again. CA wages are already high a few years of that and Uber will be back at baseline.
turtlecloud 7y ago
What are you talking about? It’s already here. A home in Bay Area is close to 2 mil now lol.
- xeromal 7y ago
  How much is a meal at mcdonalds?
- Loughla 7y ago
  Why is a home in an unbelievably popular place to live, which is also full of massive amounts of new money, your measure of inflation? A home near me is about 100k for 2000 sq ft main floor. Does that mean inflation doesn't exist? What a weird argument.
- notfromhere 7y ago
  that's localized inflation due to housing scarcity in the Bay, it's not hitting the economy as a whole.

crooked-v 7y ago

A $21/hour wage in SoCal wouldn't have any noticeable effect on inflation compared to the effect of Silicon Valley and all the tech companies in San Francisco, and the north half of the state has few enough Uber-ers that it wouldn't do anything there either.

eloff 7y ago
The OP is predicting inflation from other causes, not from what uber does. Even the largest company cannot drive inflation by itself.

JamesBarney 7y ago

All the smart money disagrees with you and thinks the 10 yr inflation rate will be 1.54% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
They disagreed with me about housing prices as well a decade or so ago as well.
- Fede_V 7y ago
  And I presume you made an utter killing by putting your money where your belief were? Because if you didn't I don't believe you in the slightest.
  - fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
    I was about 13 years old I didn't have much capitol to invest. I just put together the two pieces of the puzzle that housing prices were rising much faster than wages and that a products price can't continuously rise faster then the consumers ability to pay for that product. I guess the "smart money" missed that. Now we have a bunch of presidential candidates that tell me they are going to print money all day long and a bunch of people who "know better" telling me that won't cause inflation to spike. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    - bsanr2 7y ago
      >Print money Taxing isn't printing.
      - fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
        The democrats can never seem to manage to tax the wealthy (themselves effectively) when push comes to shove. I'm not trying to be partisan, Republicans similarly are unable to cut spending. Perhaps this time will be different but I'm betting against that personally. Also it is my belief that moving money from investment vehicles to consumers will have a inflationary effect on consumer goods. The slow trickle of subsidized Uber rides for example probably has less of an effect than a direct cash transfer that happens more rapidly. More so much of that money is invested internationally, by increasing taxes on the wealthy we may be in effect increasing the total money supply in the United States.

SEJeff 7y ago

Uber will just "ride it out"

somebodythere 7y ago

> I believe inflation is very likely to explode in the next few years Why?

fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
A number of factors: 1. Money is essentially free at current interest rates and I don't see a sign of that reversing course. 2. Large firms are hording cash and have more than they know what to do with. They are at the point where they are buying their own stock because that is the most productive thing they can do with that money. 3. The democratic party is running on minimum wage increases. While it is debatable if that will have a huge impact it certainly isn't a deflationary measure. 4. Democrats are also running on the green new deal, universal income and medicare for all that I predict will not actually result in higher taxes for the wealthy in any meaningful way but instead the printing of money in order to fund those programs as that is what seems to happen every time. Even if taxes were implemented as discussed, moving money from investment vehicles (where the wealthy have it) to consumers will still probably cause inflation in terms of housing and consumer goods. 5. China is sitting on about 3 trillion dollars that is currently effectively out of the money supply and they will likely deploy that as a weapon in the trade war.
- rurp 7y ago
  Why single out the Democrats? The people _currently_ running the government are acting as if money grows on trees; just look at the federal deficit over the past couple years.
  - fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
    While that is true it is printing money for distributive purposes that I'm more worried about. Spending a few billion on bombs to blow up houses on other continents, or to prop up the stock of oil companies for example won't really move the inflation needle in regards to consumer goods as much as printing it to throw it out of a helicopter would in my estimation.