3 ms·
Clearly knowledge acquisition has accelerated in the last century. it took the same amount of time to learn how to fly. (ie several millennia) Yet, once we di
by melling 7y ago
Clearly knowledge acquisition has accelerated in the last century.
it took the same amount of time to learn how to fly. (ie several millennia)
Yet, once we did, we broke the sound barrier and made it to the moon within 70 years.
- sp332 7y agoAssuming we have the right tools to understand how the brain works to the point we can reverse-engineer it and recreate it is pretty optimistic. We have gotten better at specific things but assuming that the most recent advances in "knowledge acquisition" are the last we will need is pretty optimistic. Assuming the pace of knowledge acquisition will continue to accelerate long enough to get to that point in less than centuries is pretty optimistic.
- melling 7y agoCan you be a little more specific on the timeline? Centuries can be 200 years to almost 1000. If we look back 200 years to the 1820s, the world looked quite primitive. Railroads and steamships were exciting: https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-railroad-4059935 https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-railroad-4059935 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steamship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steamship
- sp332 7y agoMost of the computing tech we have now is based on fundamental ideas from before 1980. https://stackoverflow.com/questions/432922/significant-new-inventions-in-computing-since-1980 https://stackoverflow.com/questions/432922/significant-new-i... I don't think the pace of new ideas in computing is accelerating right now. If that ability to capture the behavior of a human brain isn't already on the horizon, I wouldn't expect it to be doable in the next 300-400 years. We don't have the mental framework to structure a project like that. On top of that, the engineering to even capture data from a brain to begin with is pretty far off.
- melling 7y agoWe didn’t have this 40 years ago: http://portal.brain-map.org/ http://portal.brain-map.org/
- bluedino 7y agoLow hanging fruit. Also, we haven't really broken many speed records in the last 50 years. So what happens first, AGI or traveling at close to the speed of light?
- spappal 7y agoThis doesn't really get us closer to the speed of light, but we have broken lots of speed records in the last 50 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records
- bluedino 7y agoThe ones that actually count - air vehicle rocket and air vehicle air-breathing, were set in 1967 and 1976.