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Carmack makes good point about VR in the beginning. For people who live in tight spaces VR can be way to do conventional things like watch films and YouTube. T

Carmack makes good point about VR in the beginning. For people who live in tight spaces VR can be way to do conventional things like watch films and YouTube. This kind of conventional use could be what bootstraps VR markets. VR headset tech is in a weird situation where none of them is really good enough, but when you test the best in the market it destroys the enjoyment you get from previous generation. I tested 20 minutes $6000 Vario VR-1 where the market is professional use and now anything consumer grade feels like total crap.

dalbasal 7y ago
I'm not betting my whole stack on it, but I would bet some on the idea that an imminent breakthrough/killer-app for consumer VR will be exercise. Could be VR gyms. Could be home use. Take a current-gen oculus/etc. Add a heart rate monitor, foot tracking, maybe weighted controllers... you have some excellent workout potential. If price can get to <$300, they will sell A lot of the top games atm (beat saber, superhot, boxvr) are pretty exercise-ey. Combining gamified fun/addictiveness, in-home convenience & all the advantages of digitization (eg adjust speed in response to heart rate)... I reckon it will be effective. We're not far from it. An exercise-centric home VR console and/or VR gyms...
- buboard 7y ago
  > VR will be exercise. Could be VR gyms It s an interesting idea but about the worst situation i can think of. Not only will i be sweating, i 'll be vigorously moving , exacerbating any vestibular reflexes, shifting the headset on my head, and risking getting injured. I think anything that requires too much physical interaction is a bad candidate for VR. My idea of VR is that it amplifies any minute movement of my fingers magically. That feels empowering
  - Ajedi32 7y ago
    There are already a lot of great games in VR that make you sweat. It's actually not bad at all. Sweat is easily dealt with if you purchase a washable faceplate cover, and there are no simulator sickness issues created by moving around physically with a 6DoF headset, since the view in-game perfectly mirrors your movement in the real world. The headset can shift around slightly on your head, but I've found that's only really an issue if you turn your head complete upside down. Aside from that, slight shifts are barely noticeable provided the headset is strapped on correctly. I do agree that actually using gym equipment in VR would be rather difficult to do safely, unless the equipment itself was actually tracked and displayed in-game.
- aphextim 7y ago
  A fully immersive experience could be fun. Biking trails while wearing a VR headset on an online community driven game system like Zwift, but with VR could be fun! https://zwift.com/ https://zwift.com/
  - dalbasal 7y ago
    Exactly. In VR (current-gen), this can be gamified to make it more fun and addictive. Instead of turning up the music and yelling encouragement like a spinning class, you can be chased by bears. Add in social/multiplayer features (help friend escape bear), and it could be savage.
- overcast 7y ago
  The killer app for VR is going to be escapism. There is going to be a future where you're going to purchase experiences from companies. There will be an underground, sex will be huge, travel, alter egos, just like in sci-fi movies. Just wait until VR is like The Beam/Matrix, where you actually feel and sense everything happening. People will be jacked in for most of their life. I envision this being particularly popular for people nearing the end of their lives, or disabled & crippled.
  - dalbasal 7y ago
    perhaps :). I was talking about the immediate term though. Right now it's a gaming device(s) that's cool but lacks content. A "killer app" in the immediate sense is something to justify the current cost and drive the loop of users->content->price/performance->users. To get to your endgame, there will need to be reasons to buy devices before the tech matrix level. No sales, no production, no advancements. For now, the driver is gaming & and (in theory) biz-applications. My guess is that gaming+exercise is the next breakthrough, in terms of moving units and driving the loop. Anyway... escapism, underground culture, sex(porn), travel, alter ego is arguably the endgame of every personal computing device. Most of us do all these on PCs & phones.
    - whywhywhywhy 7y ago
      > Right now it's a gaming device(s) Think you're selling it a bit short, one of the most popular uses is Social via apps like VRChat
  - jackcosgrove 7y ago
    I don't want VR to simulate things I can actually do. I want VR to simulate things I can never do. A bunch of people "walking though a forest" while on treadmills in microapartments sounds dystopian.
    - overcast 7y ago
      When you're old, feeble, handicapped, or unfortunately unattractive, these are all things you can never do.
foobar_ 7y ago
I can tell you with my google daydream watching Netflix and old movies that I never got to see in the cinema is just bliss.
- vehementi 7y ago
  How is the experience? I mean, the resolution is a lot lower than you'd have if you just watched it on your monitor right? Is that a factor?
  - foobar_ 7y ago
    You need to get those HD prints for improved picture quality. The 700 mbs are fine too. The best part that I like about it is, you get to look at all the background elements in the screen in great detail, shadows and all that cinematography things. It's like you are alone in the theatre .. staring at this giant canvas!
criddell 7y ago
VR tech has been in that weird situation for 30 years now and I'm starting to think that's just where it's going to be. I don't think that there's some point where it has to get good enough or cheap enough to take off. I think it has already taken off. The market is decently big, but not huge and maybe that's just how it's going to be as long as you have to strap something to your face. VR is amazing to demo but it's one of those things where the novelty fades quickly. I don't think there's any reason to assume that VR will definitely be a breakout technology.
- raisedbyninjas 7y ago
  VR has a much higher floor for what qualifies as a good experience and a higher ceiling of what we can appreciate vs. a monitor or TV screen. So this pattern will probably continue for quite a while.
  - criddell 7y ago
    The resolution and latency hasn't been a problem for a while now. Incremental improvements in those things will grow the market incrementally.
    - ryandrake 7y ago
      One of the problems for VR is that the goal posts keep moving. We're always comparing it to the best traditional 2D display technology available at the time, so it will always seem to come up short. If you took today's Oculus and went back 30 years ago and handed it out to people used to 1024x768 CRT displays, people would be saying "Well, the VR problem is entirely solved, and there's no reason to do any more further research!" We'd probably have given up work on improving 2D displays.
      - criddell 7y ago
        > We'd probably have given up work on improving 2D displays. No way. Very few people want to have something strapped to their face for a long period of time. I really think VR is here, now. The market is basically what it's going to be. I'm not saying there's no growth left, but it's not going to explode.
Ajedi32 7y ago
$6k isn't really all that far away from consumer level pricing. Give it a couple generations, and that hardware will be affordable for most people. Though I'm going to have to disagree about current-generation VR not being "good enough". For me at least, the $400 standalone headset John showed at the start of the podcast is already plenty good for what I want to use it for (gaming). True it's not perfect; there's still plenty of room for resolution and graphics improvements in future iterations, but it's already easily good enough for multiplayer shooters (Pavlov), rhythm games (Beat Saber), single-player RPGs (Journey of the Gods), etc. For other use-cases like desktop replacement I agree there's still a ways to go before VR is practical for most people, but for gaming it's already in a pretty good state in my opinion.

dalbasal 7y ago

I'm not betting my whole stack on it, but I would bet some on the idea that an imminent breakthrough/killer-app for consumer VR will be exercise. Could be VR gyms. Could be home use. Take a current-gen oculus/etc. Add a heart rate monitor, foot tracking, maybe weighted controllers... you have some excellent workout potential. If price can get to <$300, they will sell A lot of the top games atm (beat saber, superhot, boxvr) are pretty exercise-ey. Combining gamified fun/addictiveness, in-home convenience & all the advantages of digitization (eg adjust speed in response to heart rate)... I reckon it will be effective. We're not far from it. An exercise-centric home VR console and/or VR gyms...

buboard 7y ago
> VR will be exercise. Could be VR gyms It s an interesting idea but about the worst situation i can think of. Not only will i be sweating, i 'll be vigorously moving , exacerbating any vestibular reflexes, shifting the headset on my head, and risking getting injured. I think anything that requires too much physical interaction is a bad candidate for VR. My idea of VR is that it amplifies any minute movement of my fingers magically. That feels empowering
- Ajedi32 7y ago
  There are already a lot of great games in VR that make you sweat. It's actually not bad at all. Sweat is easily dealt with if you purchase a washable faceplate cover, and there are no simulator sickness issues created by moving around physically with a 6DoF headset, since the view in-game perfectly mirrors your movement in the real world. The headset can shift around slightly on your head, but I've found that's only really an issue if you turn your head complete upside down. Aside from that, slight shifts are barely noticeable provided the headset is strapped on correctly. I do agree that actually using gym equipment in VR would be rather difficult to do safely, unless the equipment itself was actually tracked and displayed in-game.
aphextim 7y ago
A fully immersive experience could be fun. Biking trails while wearing a VR headset on an online community driven game system like Zwift, but with VR could be fun! https://zwift.com/ https://zwift.com/
- dalbasal 7y ago
  Exactly. In VR (current-gen), this can be gamified to make it more fun and addictive. Instead of turning up the music and yelling encouragement like a spinning class, you can be chased by bears. Add in social/multiplayer features (help friend escape bear), and it could be savage.
overcast 7y ago
The killer app for VR is going to be escapism. There is going to be a future where you're going to purchase experiences from companies. There will be an underground, sex will be huge, travel, alter egos, just like in sci-fi movies. Just wait until VR is like The Beam/Matrix, where you actually feel and sense everything happening. People will be jacked in for most of their life. I envision this being particularly popular for people nearing the end of their lives, or disabled & crippled.
- dalbasal 7y ago
  perhaps :). I was talking about the immediate term though. Right now it's a gaming device(s) that's cool but lacks content. A "killer app" in the immediate sense is something to justify the current cost and drive the loop of users->content->price/performance->users. To get to your endgame, there will need to be reasons to buy devices before the tech matrix level. No sales, no production, no advancements. For now, the driver is gaming & and (in theory) biz-applications. My guess is that gaming+exercise is the next breakthrough, in terms of moving units and driving the loop. Anyway... escapism, underground culture, sex(porn), travel, alter ego is arguably the endgame of every personal computing device. Most of us do all these on PCs & phones.
  - whywhywhywhy 7y ago
    > Right now it's a gaming device(s) Think you're selling it a bit short, one of the most popular uses is Social via apps like VRChat
- jackcosgrove 7y ago
  I don't want VR to simulate things I can actually do. I want VR to simulate things I can never do. A bunch of people "walking though a forest" while on treadmills in microapartments sounds dystopian.
  - overcast 7y ago
    When you're old, feeble, handicapped, or unfortunately unattractive, these are all things you can never do.

foobar_ 7y ago

I can tell you with my google daydream watching Netflix and old movies that I never got to see in the cinema is just bliss.

vehementi 7y ago
How is the experience? I mean, the resolution is a lot lower than you'd have if you just watched it on your monitor right? Is that a factor?
- foobar_ 7y ago
  You need to get those HD prints for improved picture quality. The 700 mbs are fine too. The best part that I like about it is, you get to look at all the background elements in the screen in great detail, shadows and all that cinematography things. It's like you are alone in the theatre .. staring at this giant canvas!

criddell 7y ago

VR tech has been in that weird situation for 30 years now and I'm starting to think that's just where it's going to be. I don't think that there's some point where it has to get good enough or cheap enough to take off. I think it has already taken off. The market is decently big, but not huge and maybe that's just how it's going to be as long as you have to strap something to your face. VR is amazing to demo but it's one of those things where the novelty fades quickly. I don't think there's any reason to assume that VR will definitely be a breakout technology.

raisedbyninjas 7y ago
VR has a much higher floor for what qualifies as a good experience and a higher ceiling of what we can appreciate vs. a monitor or TV screen. So this pattern will probably continue for quite a while.
- criddell 7y ago
  The resolution and latency hasn't been a problem for a while now. Incremental improvements in those things will grow the market incrementally.
  - ryandrake 7y ago
    One of the problems for VR is that the goal posts keep moving. We're always comparing it to the best traditional 2D display technology available at the time, so it will always seem to come up short. If you took today's Oculus and went back 30 years ago and handed it out to people used to 1024x768 CRT displays, people would be saying "Well, the VR problem is entirely solved, and there's no reason to do any more further research!" We'd probably have given up work on improving 2D displays.
    - criddell 7y ago
      > We'd probably have given up work on improving 2D displays. No way. Very few people want to have something strapped to their face for a long period of time. I really think VR is here, now. The market is basically what it's going to be. I'm not saying there's no growth left, but it's not going to explode.

Ajedi32 7y ago

$6k isn't really all that far away from consumer level pricing. Give it a couple generations, and that hardware will be affordable for most people. Though I'm going to have to disagree about current-generation VR not being "good enough". For me at least, the $400 standalone headset John showed at the start of the podcast is already plenty good for what I want to use it for (gaming). True it's not perfect; there's still plenty of room for resolution and graphics improvements in future iterations, but it's already easily good enough for multiplayer shooters (Pavlov), rhythm games (Beat Saber), single-player RPGs (Journey of the Gods), etc. For other use-cases like desktop replacement I agree there's still a ways to go before VR is practical for most people, but for gaming it's already in a pretty good state in my opinion.