8 ms·

Now is the golden opportunity for India to do exactly what they did. Seems like China is trying to wait Trump out and see someone else in the WH to whom they co

by m0zg 7y ago

Now is the golden opportunity for India to do exactly what they did. Seems like China is trying to wait Trump out and see someone else in the WH to whom they could dictate the terms and tell through which exit of the Airforce One they need to go. But that outcome seems increasingly unlikely as time goes on, so big businesses are coming to Jesus wrt workforce diversification. That's a good thing. India could use some of that sweet, sweet economic growth too.

avocado4 7y ago
The problem with waiting for another president is that both Democrats and Republicans hate China alike. And China can't afford to wait because they are sitting on a demographic time bomb due to 1 child policy (10 years left or so). So I do think Xi's approach is going to undo a lot of progress that China has made under previous presidents (when they still had a concept of term limits). I'm really rooting for India here, the largest democracy with fast growing economy and very young population. Even if 21st century is going to be dominated by Asia I'd rather see India take the leading role than China. Among other things it would also make sure that East Asian disdain for darker skinned people and China's obsession with surveillance won't become a dominant global culture.
- Despegar 7y ago
  >Among other things it would also make sure that East Asian disdain for darker skinned people India is no panacea on this front. Modi is a Hindu nationalist and if you're expecting India to be a democracy in the vein of Western liberal democracy with enlightenment values, you're in for a surprise.
  - sremani 7y ago
    India is not perfect, its democracy is full of cacophony with racial and tribal undertones. But once the results are out the transfer of power is clean and peaceful. It is not Norway or Sweden, but its not an autocracy. India built its version of Democracy that is worth it. Modi and Hindu Nationalism are the present - they were not there in power 7 years ago and 7 years from now, a new PM and Party will come. India is no Turkey and farther away from China.
    - sachdevap 7y ago
      Thank you for this. The Western supremacist attitude of GP's comment really bothered me too.
      - sprafa 7y ago
        What’s western supremacist about pointing out the ethnic and religious nationalism of the current Indian government
        sachdevap 7y ago
        > a democracy in the vein of Western liberal democracy with enlightenment values I might add that I don't disagree with the Indian government being Hindu nationalistic, and I am happy to discuss the flaws of the Indian government, but not under this notion that we are somehow in the same bucket as China, and that only the west is holy in the world.
        Despegar 7y ago
        >but not under this notion that we are somehow in the same bucket as China I didn't say India was the same as China. >and that only the west is holy in the world. If you're a minority of any kind, you're better off living in a Western liberal democracy than anywhere else in the world. That doesn't make it "holy", but that does make it better.
        sachdevap 7y ago
        Umm ... Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis are all minorities in India. India has it's own share of troubles in minority relations, but they are no different from the race issues dealt with in many western democracies. Does the US count as a Western liberal democracy? Because the incarceration rates of Black people in the US would certainly suggest otherwise. The biggest factor in how well off people are in any country is economics, so unless you match up the economic factors, making any comparison of this sort is not useful. India's treatment of minorities is much better compared to the treatment of minorities in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. While China is not a fair comparison because of different economic models, India does much better than China none the less.
  - lappet 7y ago
    > vein of Western liberal democracy with enlightenment values I would say that ship has sailed with Trump
  - sbmthakur 7y ago
    Modi is a Hindu nationalist who is democratically elected. While I appreciate what Western democracies are doing w.r.t. Human Rights, they have their fair share of bad treatment of minorities. Racial discrimination comes to my mind.
- m0zg 7y ago
  Biden's son got > $1B from the Chinese not so long ago to run a private equity firm. If anyone thinks he's got that money for his good looks, they're very naive. The Chinese got Joe by the balls, he's very "friendly" to them, publicly as well. And Bernie can't tell a business negotiation from a hole in the ground. Those two are the most likely candidates at the moment. Needless to say, the "CEO move" of the next person in the WH will be to "undo" just about everything the previous president has accomplished, and this in particular will be reasonably easy to undo (because the other side is eager to return to the status quo whereby they just steal our IP and fleece us to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars a year through currency manipulation). On top of that the next president will be under intense pressure from their corporate donors to undo it.
  - sachdevap 7y ago
    > previous president has accomplished I think "accomplished" comes with positive connotations. To successfully achieve a task, you need a task with a defined goal. And unless the goal was global chaos, there are no accomplishments here.
    - sremani 7y ago
      Trump extracted transactional Trade treaties with Canada, Mexico, South Korea and Japan. Name another president who re-shaped American trade with that many treaties - I cannot think of any one in the past 50 years. An over-extended america wants vacation - stylistically it make look a bit different but substantively "american retrenchment" is baked in 2016 no matter who the president is.
      - sprafa 7y ago
        What were the fundamental changes in the treaties that make you think it was a success?
  - deogeo 7y ago
    > Biden's son got > $1B from the Chinese not so long ago to run a private equity firm. I was surprised how little attention that story (https://nypost.com/2018/03/15/inside-the-shady-private-equity-firm-run-by-kerry-and-bidens-kids/ https://nypost.com/2018/03/15/inside-the-shady-private-equit...) got in the media.
- hanniabu 7y ago
  > due to 1 child policy (10 years left or so) If I understood this comment correctly, after another 10 years the 1 child policy will no longer be in effect? What are the chances it'll be extended? What are they doing to prepare for the population boom?
  - magicsmoke 7y ago
    The current issue right now is that as China develops they're going through the same demographic decline a lot of other developed nations are going through, and it's not certain that removing this outdated cap on their population growth will actually solve their demographic problems. They got rid of their one child policy 3 years ago when they realized there was a population crunch in their labor force coming.
  - avocado4 7y ago
    Due to past 1 child policy China's average age is on par with US now, and much higher than other developing nations. But the level of development is still very low relatively speaking. 10 years from now they'll have 400 million old people, plus another 100 million sick from pollution and other public health issues. From my conversations with party members their plan is to automate the doctors by then.
    - gingabriska 7y ago
      But isn't it basically take care of by automation? They simply do not need that many workers now.
- birdyrooster 7y ago
  I would walk back the commentary about Democrats and Republicans hating China. They have issues with China’s government, but it’s unfair to lump all of Democrats, Republicans and China into a single sentence.
  - mc32 7y ago
    I dunno, the context was around mr Xi (not the Chinese pop at large) and in that context poster could have a point.
gingabriska 7y ago
India has habit of being at the golden opportunity than missing it completely. The problem with India is that internal demand for products is negligible, people aren't spending, everyone's saving! And a lot of people don't have employment. It's overburdened by taxes. Country has many manufacturers but no retailers willing to sell the produce. Country is developing very fast, when you can't buy pvc pipe, MDF, custom cut glass online? There is no company selling screws online in India, strange! Local businessmen do not want to take any risk. When internal demand and supply is dead. Opening market for iPhones gonna put downward pressure on currency. I am not saying, it's a bad move. It's welcomed move, I suggest India open its market for foreign manufacturers and companies, so that they are able to sell here anything duty free. But this will lead to a massive correction on the currency value which is long overdue. If currency loses it value entirely, I think the government will mandate private household gold be sold to the government at fixed rate set by government which will be used to pay for gas/petroleum import once the currency tanks. India's currency will definitely tank if it opens itself up. But there is massive amount of household gold which can be used to support the currency and bring it back up. This will honestly make people more equal specially in country where there are many havenots, strengthening the currency should be lot more important. Annexing private gold holding should be next big step after demonetization.
- dragonsh 7y ago
  India theoretically could have taken advantage of trade war. But for that to happen it needed 3 things: 1. Skilled workforce 2. Infrastructure 3. Rule of law Present India lacks all 3 in one or the other way and indeed moving towards authoritarian government with shutting down internet at will, arresting people for post critical of govt or it's ministers [1] [2] [3] [4]. Looking at what's happening with economy, fudging economic numbers, large young unemployed youth, faltering manufacturing sector. These are ticking timebomb. Obviously the major beneficiary has been south east Asia, especially Vietnam. Not sure India can take advantage. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_India https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_India [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-46631911 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-46631911 [3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/indian-police-arrest-students-defaming-narendra-modi https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/indian-police-... [4] https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/arrested-over-a-facebook-status-7-times-people-landed-in-jail-for-posts-against-politicians/story-ON1jukoStfV6T8aYcJEVGJ.html https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/arrested-over-a-face...

by m0zg 7y ago

avocado4 7y ago

The problem with waiting for another president is that both Democrats and Republicans hate China alike. And China can't afford to wait because they are sitting on a demographic time bomb due to 1 child policy (10 years left or so). So I do think Xi's approach is going to undo a lot of progress that China has made under previous presidents (when they still had a concept of term limits). I'm really rooting for India here, the largest democracy with fast growing economy and very young population. Even if 21st century is going to be dominated by Asia I'd rather see India take the leading role than China. Among other things it would also make sure that East Asian disdain for darker skinned people and China's obsession with surveillance won't become a dominant global culture.

Despegar 7y ago
>Among other things it would also make sure that East Asian disdain for darker skinned people India is no panacea on this front. Modi is a Hindu nationalist and if you're expecting India to be a democracy in the vein of Western liberal democracy with enlightenment values, you're in for a surprise.
- sremani 7y ago
  India is not perfect, its democracy is full of cacophony with racial and tribal undertones. But once the results are out the transfer of power is clean and peaceful. It is not Norway or Sweden, but its not an autocracy. India built its version of Democracy that is worth it. Modi and Hindu Nationalism are the present - they were not there in power 7 years ago and 7 years from now, a new PM and Party will come. India is no Turkey and farther away from China.
  - sachdevap 7y ago
    Thank you for this. The Western supremacist attitude of GP's comment really bothered me too.
    - sprafa 7y ago
      What’s western supremacist about pointing out the ethnic and religious nationalism of the current Indian government
      - sachdevap 7y ago
        > a democracy in the vein of Western liberal democracy with enlightenment values I might add that I don't disagree with the Indian government being Hindu nationalistic, and I am happy to discuss the flaws of the Indian government, but not under this notion that we are somehow in the same bucket as China, and that only the west is holy in the world.
        Despegar 7y ago
        >but not under this notion that we are somehow in the same bucket as China I didn't say India was the same as China. >and that only the west is holy in the world. If you're a minority of any kind, you're better off living in a Western liberal democracy than anywhere else in the world. That doesn't make it "holy", but that does make it better.
        sachdevap 7y ago
        Umm ... Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis are all minorities in India. India has it's own share of troubles in minority relations, but they are no different from the race issues dealt with in many western democracies. Does the US count as a Western liberal democracy? Because the incarceration rates of Black people in the US would certainly suggest otherwise. The biggest factor in how well off people are in any country is economics, so unless you match up the economic factors, making any comparison of this sort is not useful. India's treatment of minorities is much better compared to the treatment of minorities in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. While China is not a fair comparison because of different economic models, India does much better than China none the less.
- lappet 7y ago
  > vein of Western liberal democracy with enlightenment values I would say that ship has sailed with Trump
- sbmthakur 7y ago
  Modi is a Hindu nationalist who is democratically elected. While I appreciate what Western democracies are doing w.r.t. Human Rights, they have their fair share of bad treatment of minorities. Racial discrimination comes to my mind.
m0zg 7y ago
Biden's son got > $1B from the Chinese not so long ago to run a private equity firm. If anyone thinks he's got that money for his good looks, they're very naive. The Chinese got Joe by the balls, he's very "friendly" to them, publicly as well. And Bernie can't tell a business negotiation from a hole in the ground. Those two are the most likely candidates at the moment. Needless to say, the "CEO move" of the next person in the WH will be to "undo" just about everything the previous president has accomplished, and this in particular will be reasonably easy to undo (because the other side is eager to return to the status quo whereby they just steal our IP and fleece us to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars a year through currency manipulation). On top of that the next president will be under intense pressure from their corporate donors to undo it.
- sachdevap 7y ago
  > previous president has accomplished I think "accomplished" comes with positive connotations. To successfully achieve a task, you need a task with a defined goal. And unless the goal was global chaos, there are no accomplishments here.
  - sremani 7y ago
    Trump extracted transactional Trade treaties with Canada, Mexico, South Korea and Japan. Name another president who re-shaped American trade with that many treaties - I cannot think of any one in the past 50 years. An over-extended america wants vacation - stylistically it make look a bit different but substantively "american retrenchment" is baked in 2016 no matter who the president is.
    - sprafa 7y ago
      What were the fundamental changes in the treaties that make you think it was a success?
- deogeo 7y ago
  > Biden's son got > $1B from the Chinese not so long ago to run a private equity firm. I was surprised how little attention that story (https://nypost.com/2018/03/15/inside-the-shady-private-equity-firm-run-by-kerry-and-bidens-kids/ https://nypost.com/2018/03/15/inside-the-shady-private-equit...) got in the media.
hanniabu 7y ago
> due to 1 child policy (10 years left or so) If I understood this comment correctly, after another 10 years the 1 child policy will no longer be in effect? What are the chances it'll be extended? What are they doing to prepare for the population boom?
- magicsmoke 7y ago
  The current issue right now is that as China develops they're going through the same demographic decline a lot of other developed nations are going through, and it's not certain that removing this outdated cap on their population growth will actually solve their demographic problems. They got rid of their one child policy 3 years ago when they realized there was a population crunch in their labor force coming.
- avocado4 7y ago
  Due to past 1 child policy China's average age is on par with US now, and much higher than other developing nations. But the level of development is still very low relatively speaking. 10 years from now they'll have 400 million old people, plus another 100 million sick from pollution and other public health issues. From my conversations with party members their plan is to automate the doctors by then.
  - gingabriska 7y ago
    But isn't it basically take care of by automation? They simply do not need that many workers now.
birdyrooster 7y ago
I would walk back the commentary about Democrats and Republicans hating China. They have issues with China’s government, but it’s unfair to lump all of Democrats, Republicans and China into a single sentence.
- mc32 7y ago
  I dunno, the context was around mr Xi (not the Chinese pop at large) and in that context poster could have a point.

gingabriska 7y ago

India has habit of being at the golden opportunity than missing it completely. The problem with India is that internal demand for products is negligible, people aren't spending, everyone's saving! And a lot of people don't have employment. It's overburdened by taxes. Country has many manufacturers but no retailers willing to sell the produce. Country is developing very fast, when you can't buy pvc pipe, MDF, custom cut glass online? There is no company selling screws online in India, strange! Local businessmen do not want to take any risk. When internal demand and supply is dead. Opening market for iPhones gonna put downward pressure on currency. I am not saying, it's a bad move. It's welcomed move, I suggest India open its market for foreign manufacturers and companies, so that they are able to sell here anything duty free. But this will lead to a massive correction on the currency value which is long overdue. If currency loses it value entirely, I think the government will mandate private household gold be sold to the government at fixed rate set by government which will be used to pay for gas/petroleum import once the currency tanks. India's currency will definitely tank if it opens itself up. But there is massive amount of household gold which can be used to support the currency and bring it back up. This will honestly make people more equal specially in country where there are many havenots, strengthening the currency should be lot more important. Annexing private gold holding should be next big step after demonetization.

dragonsh 7y ago
India theoretically could have taken advantage of trade war. But for that to happen it needed 3 things: 1. Skilled workforce 2. Infrastructure 3. Rule of law Present India lacks all 3 in one or the other way and indeed moving towards authoritarian government with shutting down internet at will, arresting people for post critical of govt or it's ministers [1] [2] [3] [4]. Looking at what's happening with economy, fudging economic numbers, large young unemployed youth, faltering manufacturing sector. These are ticking timebomb. Obviously the major beneficiary has been south east Asia, especially Vietnam. Not sure India can take advantage. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_India https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_India [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-46631911 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-46631911 [3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/indian-police-arrest-students-defaming-narendra-modi https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/indian-police-... [4] https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/arrested-over-a-facebook-status-7-times-people-landed-in-jail-for-posts-against-politicians/story-ON1jukoStfV6T8aYcJEVGJ.html https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/arrested-over-a-face...