3 ms·
> but none of the townspeople know anything at all about the emperor’s nose, so the causal chain from the actual emperor’s nose to the elders’ estimate is broke
by jancsika 7y ago
> but none of the townspeople know anything at all about the emperor’s nose, so the causal chain from the actual emperor’s nose to the elders’ estimate is broken.
They do. They are humans, and humans have noses.
Using the statistical method decreases the chance that a wild guess by the sculptor ends up angering the Emperor and causing deaths in the village.
- sudhirj 7y agoI don’t think the sculptor was planning to sculpt an outlandish alien nose. The problem is that if your statue doesn’t look right heads will roll. The story isn’t about the selection of outlier data points as being representative - its more about drawing conclusions through seemingly plausible sounding methods that are nevertheless completely disjoint from the thing you’re reasoning about.