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I don't see any element of truth in the "failed economy" narrative. That's one angle that we really can get to the truth of without any media bias. Are there a

I don't see any element of truth in the "failed economy" narrative. That's one angle that we really can get to the truth of without any media bias. Are there any econometrics published from before the protests started that would indicate an economic cause? I haven't seen any but I also haven't looked hard enough to reject the premise.

xster 7y ago
Where did you look for them? https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/2174006/record-13-million-people-living-below-poverty-line-hong-kong https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/2174006/...
- IIAOPSW 7y ago
  Well sure that's a start. But is 14% abnormal? I legit don't know. I tried to find out just now and ended up on this wikipedia article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percentage_of_population_living_in_poverty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percentag... This data set has a lot of N/A in it. I end up relying on the CIA estimate for basically all of them because no other column has data. Just for the sake of fair (albeit unscientific comparison) I'm picking out the stats from random first-world countries as I scroll through the list. I am using the second list titled "Population living below national poverty line" Canada: 9.4% Denmark: 13.4% France: 14.2% Germany: 16.7% US: 12.3% Japan: 16.1% Hong Kong: 19.9% So the CIA estimate is higher than the SCMP article. Maybe they are also overestimating the other countries, or maybe its just statistical variance. Taking the data at face value, HK does seem to be above average in poverty, but likely within a standard deviation. HK is also unique in this list because its a de facto city-state. Perhaps when we break those other countries down per city we get similar results? I'm not satisfied with the poverty line explanation. The protestors don't look to be poor people and we don't see such a degree of protest in other places with similar amounts of poverty.
  - goblin89 7y ago
    The narrative that Hong Kong protests are primarily supported by poorer folks whom the economy failed in recent past goes counter to some recent reports—various Hong Kong accounting firms being requested to fire employees who express sympathy with protests, resignation of the CEO of Cathay Pacific (alleged to be a flashy gesture with which he admitted his support)—and to my anecdotal experience: among local acquaintances, those who don’t openly support the protests are either relatively not well-off or they agree with protesters on the goals but, like me, disagree on modes of action.
kccqzy 7y ago
I can clarify. The "failed economy" narrative was mostly about the rising income inequality among Hong Kongers. The mainland news media is trying to portray Hong Kong as having a mismanaged economy so that these young people engaged in protests have seen very little increase in real income but face tremendous increase in cost of living. And they compare it unfavorably to the situation in mainland China where they claim that the communist party has increased the well-being and wealth of everyone. There's some element of truth in it, but of course I find it exaggerated.
- IIAOPSW 7y ago
  I know exactly what you mean. I have a friend on wechat from my time living in China. It is remarkable for me to talk with this person. He's not at all the belligerent nationalist type nor the insufficiently critical news-bubble type. Yet even he finds the narrative pushed by the news to be compelling. It's been a stimulating exercise talking with him without falling down the rabbit hole of dismissing each others facts by dismissing the others news sources as propaganda. The 3 narratives I see are 1. the organizers are sell-outs to the US and the followers are just stupid. Western imperialists want to split China again. 2. the protestors are rioters, violent mobs, essentially a zombie horde not a movement with demands that can be met. 3. the stated reasons for the protests aren't the real reason. the real cause is economic. (subtext: freedoms and democracy is intrinsically a Western thing and Chinese people asking for it are denying they're Chinese) Part of why I asked for data is because I'm being lazy and want to use the response in my other conversation. Engaging in debate as one person, when the other side has entire media outlets working for them, is kinda hard. Help me.
  - yorwba 7y ago
    1.a Ask how much a protester is paid for participating. The number I've seen floating around is 3000 RMB. Then ask how much it costs to buy a million protesters. If they think that that's a reasonable amount, ask why they didn't simply buy every single Hong Konger for just slightly more. Hopefully they'll realize that most protesters aren't paid. 1.b The protesters' demands are all about changing the behavior of the local government. They have no reason to split from China unless the mainland government intervenes to prevent that change. As a bonus, consider that the current Hong Kong government is only in power due to the election system with functional constituencies put in place by the British to secure their grip on the city. In a way, China simply replaced Britain as the colonial power rather than freeing Hong Kong from colonialism. (On the other hand, this argument can backfire since Hong Kong would be even worse off if all former British institutions were replaced by their mainland equivalents.) 2. If all protesters were violent rioters, they'd have conquered Hong Kong by now. But the majority are peaceful and have even less power to stop the rioters than the police; whose indiscriminate use of tear gas and rubber bullets has hurt people who were either participating peacefully or just happened to be in the area. That's why they want an independent investigation of the police. 3. The economic situation may make them more likely to protest, but what they choose to protest is still something they care about. Consider the protests that erupted at Nanjing School of Applied Technology in April [1], at Beijing Normal University's Zhuhai branch in June [2] or in Wuhan's Xinzhou district also in June [3]. Were those all for economic reasons? Also ask whether they were aware of these or any other protests. [1] https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/4/28/n11220048.htm https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/4/28/n11220048.htm [2] http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/6/11/n11315690.htm http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/6/11/n11315690.htm [3] https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/7/4/n11363038.htm https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/7/4/n11363038.htm (I'm linking to Epoch Times articles, but in each case you can find raw footage on YouTube searching for "南应", "北师珠", "武汉阳逻") Finally, you should know that there just as you are here asking for help arguing with your Chinese friends, so are Chinese people asking on Zhihu for help arguing with their Western friends.
iiuytrty 7y ago
Compare Hong Kong to Macau. They are in the same position, - Colonized by a European country and then returned to China, - Under one country, two systems - Speak Cantonese but Macau’s GDP per person is almost double that of Hong Kong. There are no protests in Macau.
- keiferski 7y ago
  Macau is a fraction of the size of Hong Kong. I don't really think it's a comparison worth making in any deep sense. - GDP: Hong Kong 341.4 billion USD, Macau 50.36 billion USD - Population: Hong Kong 7,392,000, Macau 622,567
- IIAOPSW 7y ago
  Hong Kong has over triple the GDP per person as mainland China. If the relevant predictor is GDP per person, why isn't mainland China experiencing civil unrest? If the answer is GDP growth rates, Macau has an insane boom-bust cycle with -20% growth in 2015. Why wasn't there civil unrest there in 2015? If the answer is a more complicated combination of indicators and trends, you're going to have to spell it.

xster 7y ago

Where did you look for them? https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/2174006/record-13-million-people-living-below-poverty-line-hong-kong https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/2174006/...

IIAOPSW 7y ago
Well sure that's a start. But is 14% abnormal? I legit don't know. I tried to find out just now and ended up on this wikipedia article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percentage_of_population_living_in_poverty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percentag... This data set has a lot of N/A in it. I end up relying on the CIA estimate for basically all of them because no other column has data. Just for the sake of fair (albeit unscientific comparison) I'm picking out the stats from random first-world countries as I scroll through the list. I am using the second list titled "Population living below national poverty line" Canada: 9.4% Denmark: 13.4% France: 14.2% Germany: 16.7% US: 12.3% Japan: 16.1% Hong Kong: 19.9% So the CIA estimate is higher than the SCMP article. Maybe they are also overestimating the other countries, or maybe its just statistical variance. Taking the data at face value, HK does seem to be above average in poverty, but likely within a standard deviation. HK is also unique in this list because its a de facto city-state. Perhaps when we break those other countries down per city we get similar results? I'm not satisfied with the poverty line explanation. The protestors don't look to be poor people and we don't see such a degree of protest in other places with similar amounts of poverty.
- goblin89 7y ago
  The narrative that Hong Kong protests are primarily supported by poorer folks whom the economy failed in recent past goes counter to some recent reports—various Hong Kong accounting firms being requested to fire employees who express sympathy with protests, resignation of the CEO of Cathay Pacific (alleged to be a flashy gesture with which he admitted his support)—and to my anecdotal experience: among local acquaintances, those who don’t openly support the protests are either relatively not well-off or they agree with protesters on the goals but, like me, disagree on modes of action.

kccqzy 7y ago

I can clarify. The "failed economy" narrative was mostly about the rising income inequality among Hong Kongers. The mainland news media is trying to portray Hong Kong as having a mismanaged economy so that these young people engaged in protests have seen very little increase in real income but face tremendous increase in cost of living. And they compare it unfavorably to the situation in mainland China where they claim that the communist party has increased the well-being and wealth of everyone. There's some element of truth in it, but of course I find it exaggerated.

IIAOPSW 7y ago
I know exactly what you mean. I have a friend on wechat from my time living in China. It is remarkable for me to talk with this person. He's not at all the belligerent nationalist type nor the insufficiently critical news-bubble type. Yet even he finds the narrative pushed by the news to be compelling. It's been a stimulating exercise talking with him without falling down the rabbit hole of dismissing each others facts by dismissing the others news sources as propaganda. The 3 narratives I see are 1. the organizers are sell-outs to the US and the followers are just stupid. Western imperialists want to split China again. 2. the protestors are rioters, violent mobs, essentially a zombie horde not a movement with demands that can be met. 3. the stated reasons for the protests aren't the real reason. the real cause is economic. (subtext: freedoms and democracy is intrinsically a Western thing and Chinese people asking for it are denying they're Chinese) Part of why I asked for data is because I'm being lazy and want to use the response in my other conversation. Engaging in debate as one person, when the other side has entire media outlets working for them, is kinda hard. Help me.
- yorwba 7y ago
  1.a Ask how much a protester is paid for participating. The number I've seen floating around is 3000 RMB. Then ask how much it costs to buy a million protesters. If they think that that's a reasonable amount, ask why they didn't simply buy every single Hong Konger for just slightly more. Hopefully they'll realize that most protesters aren't paid. 1.b The protesters' demands are all about changing the behavior of the local government. They have no reason to split from China unless the mainland government intervenes to prevent that change. As a bonus, consider that the current Hong Kong government is only in power due to the election system with functional constituencies put in place by the British to secure their grip on the city. In a way, China simply replaced Britain as the colonial power rather than freeing Hong Kong from colonialism. (On the other hand, this argument can backfire since Hong Kong would be even worse off if all former British institutions were replaced by their mainland equivalents.) 2. If all protesters were violent rioters, they'd have conquered Hong Kong by now. But the majority are peaceful and have even less power to stop the rioters than the police; whose indiscriminate use of tear gas and rubber bullets has hurt people who were either participating peacefully or just happened to be in the area. That's why they want an independent investigation of the police. 3. The economic situation may make them more likely to protest, but what they choose to protest is still something they care about. Consider the protests that erupted at Nanjing School of Applied Technology in April [1], at Beijing Normal University's Zhuhai branch in June [2] or in Wuhan's Xinzhou district also in June [3]. Were those all for economic reasons? Also ask whether they were aware of these or any other protests. [1] https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/4/28/n11220048.htm https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/4/28/n11220048.htm [2] http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/6/11/n11315690.htm http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/6/11/n11315690.htm [3] https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/7/4/n11363038.htm https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/7/4/n11363038.htm (I'm linking to Epoch Times articles, but in each case you can find raw footage on YouTube searching for "南应", "北师珠", "武汉阳逻") Finally, you should know that there just as you are here asking for help arguing with your Chinese friends, so are Chinese people asking on Zhihu for help arguing with their Western friends.

iiuytrty 7y ago

Compare Hong Kong to Macau. They are in the same position, - Colonized by a European country and then returned to China, - Under one country, two systems - Speak Cantonese but Macau’s GDP per person is almost double that of Hong Kong. There are no protests in Macau.

keiferski 7y ago
Macau is a fraction of the size of Hong Kong. I don't really think it's a comparison worth making in any deep sense. - GDP: Hong Kong 341.4 billion USD, Macau 50.36 billion USD - Population: Hong Kong 7,392,000, Macau 622,567
IIAOPSW 7y ago
Hong Kong has over triple the GDP per person as mainland China. If the relevant predictor is GDP per person, why isn't mainland China experiencing civil unrest? If the answer is GDP growth rates, Macau has an insane boom-bust cycle with -20% growth in 2015. Why wasn't there civil unrest there in 2015? If the answer is a more complicated combination of indicators and trends, you're going to have to spell it.